Proxying for Expected Returns with Price Earnings Ratios
Long-run regression models using the trailing earnings over price ratio to predict future returns suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988, 2001) work quite well. However, in this note we show that this variable might result in a downward biased proxy for expected future returns. Instead we suggest using a moving average of the log of 1 plus the earnings price ratio when forecasting long-run returns. The empirical results for the S&P 500 show the superiority of our approach to existing ones.
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- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001.
"Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1295, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002.
"Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?,"
NBER Working Papers
9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charlotte S. Hansen & Bjorn E. Tuypens, 2004. "Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets," Finance 0410018, EconWPA.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
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