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In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries - Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches

Listed author(s):
  • Leo JG Van Wissen


  • Nicole Gaag


  • Phil Rees


  • John Stillwell


Registered author(s):

    Internal migration is the most volatile and difficult to predict component of regional demographic change. A pure demographic approach using age and sex-specific parameters of migration intensities cannot fully capture the migration trends over time. One of the approaches that can be used for a better description of past trends and forecasting of future trends is to use additional non-demographic information such as regional economic indicators. In this paper we compare the predictive performance of pure demographic and extended economic-geographical models using data of four European countries at the so-called NUTS 2 level. The models are nested within a GLM specification%2C that allows both demographic and extended models to be written as specific cases of loglinear models. Therefore model fit and performance can be compared directly.

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    Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa05p787.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2005
    Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p787
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    1. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1986_41n3_0609 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. A G Wilson & P H Rees, 1974. "Accounts and models for spatial demographic analysis 2: age - sex disaggregated populations," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 6(1), pages 101-116, January.
    3. A Stewart Fotheringham & Phil Rees & Tony Champion & Stamatis Kalogirou & Andy R Tremayne, 2004. "The development of a migration model for England and Wales: overview and modelling out-migration," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 36(9), pages 1633-1672, September.
    4. P H Rees & A G Wilson, 1973. "Accounts and Models for Spatial Demographic Analysis I: Aggregate Population," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 5(1), pages 61-90, February.
    5. P H Rees & A G Wilson, 1973. "Accounts and models for spatial demographic analysis I: aggregate population," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 5(1), pages 61-90, January.
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