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Modelling and seasonal forecasting of monthly hotel nights in Denmark

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  • Sørensen, Nils Karl

Abstract

The paper examines the monthly forecasting performance of several models of hotel demand in Denmark by nationality. Statistics are covering a period of more than 30 years, and special attention is devoted to the role of seasonality. Deterministic as well as stochastic seasonality is considered. The data generating process is also examined from a more traditional view by estimating an ECM-model where hotel demand is assumed to depend on economic variables like the foreign and Danish CPI and the exchange rate and variables measuring the climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sørensen, Nils Karl, 2002. "Modelling and seasonal forecasting of monthly hotel nights in Denmark," ERSA conference papers ersa02p114, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p114
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    File URL: https://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa02/cd-rom/papers/114.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas C. Jensen, 1998. "Income and Price Elasticities by Nationality for Tourists in Denmark," Tourism Economics, , vol. 4(2), pages 101-130, June.
    2. Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
    3. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    4. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    5. Barsky, Robert B & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 503-534, June.
    6. Philip Hans Franses & Bart Hobijn, 1997. "Critical values for unit root tests in seasonal time series," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 25-48.
    7. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
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