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Inflation, liquidity and innovation

Author

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  • Evers,Michael Wayne
  • Niemann,Stefan
  • Schiffbauer,Marc Tobias

Abstract

This paper presents a simple model with financial frictions where inflation increases the cost faced by firms holding liquid assets to hedge risky production against expenditure shocks. Inflation tilts firms'technology choice away from innovative activities and toward safer but return-dominated ones, and therefore reduces long-run growth. The theory makes specific predictions about how the severity of this adverse effect depends on industry characteristics. These predictions are tested with novel harmonized firm-level data from 139 developing countries, overcoming small sample problems constraining previous work. The analysis finds that inflation affects the composition but not the overall quantity of investment. A one percentage point increase in inflation reduces the establishment-level probability of innovation by 4.3 percent but does not affect total investment. Moreover, innovating firms display a stronger dependence on liquid assets, which, in turn, are negatively related to inflation. Generalized difference-in-differences estimations corroborate the sector-specific predictions of the theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Evers,Michael Wayne & Niemann,Stefan & Schiffbauer,Marc Tobias, 2018. "Inflation, liquidity and innovation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8436, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8436
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    Cited by:

    1. Maleva, Tatiana (Малева, Татьяна) & Zubarevich, Natalya (Зубаревич, Наталья) & Lyashok, Victor (Ляшок, Виктор) & Lopatina, Marina (Лопатина, Марина), 2018. "The Russian Labor Market: The Impact of Crises [Российский Рынок Труда: Воздействие Кризисов]," Working Papers 041831, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Kassouri, Yacouba, 2024. "The labor market impact of inflation uncertainty: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1514-1528.
    3. Mingbo Zheng & Gen-Fu Feng & Chun-Ping Chang, 2023. "Is green finance capable of promoting renewable energy technology? Empirical investigation for 64 economies worldwide," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(2), pages 483-510, June.
    4. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Shim, Myungkyu, 2022. "Inflation anchoring and growth: The role of credit constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Bijoy Chandra Das & Fakhrul Hasan & Soma Rani Sutradhar, 2024. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty and inflation risk on corporate cash holdings," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 865-887, April.
    6. Peterson K. Ozili, 2024. "Central bank digital currency, economic growth and inflation," Journal of Money and Business, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(1), pages 73-90, May.
    7. Diana-Claudia PERȚICAȘ & Roxana GAVRILUȚ & Olivia-Andreea MARCU & Adrian-Gheorghe FLOREA, 2024. "Do International Regulations Force Transport Companies To Reduce Their Carbon Emissions?," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 83-91, December.
    8. Umar, Zaghum & Hadad, Elroi & Phiri, Andrew & Teplova, Tamara, 2025. "Dynamics of asymmetric connectedness among magnificent seven technology giants: Insights from QVAR analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Michael Machokoto & Tesfaye T. Lemma & Ouarda Dsouli & Rebecca Fakoussa & Eghosa Igudia, 2024. "Coupling men‐to‐women: Promoting innovation in emerging markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3656-3677, July.
    10. Xiao, Nanbing & Zhou, Jincheng & Fang, Xia, 2023. "Role of digital finance, investment, and trade in technological progress," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Atangana Ondoa Henri & Seabrook Arthur Mveng, 2024. "Economic Freedom and Productivity in Africa," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 3039-3058, March.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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