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From commodity discovery to production

Author

Listed:
  • Shaukat Khan,Tehmina
  • Nguyen,Trang Thi Thuy
  • Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
  • Schodde,Richard

Abstract

Major resource discoveries have transformed growth prospects for many low-income countries. However, the sharp downturn in commodity prices in recent years is affecting resource investment in these countries, and may delay the development of recent discoveries into production. This study investigates lead times from discovery to production for a unique data set of gold and copper discoveries worldwide during 1950-2014. The study employs standard parametric and nonparametric duration analysis. The results suggest an important role for copper prices; for instance, an upswing at the time of discovery can hasten the development of the mine by two to three years in low-income countries. There appears to be a similarly beneficial impact on lead times of sounder macroeconomic policies and quality of governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaukat Khan,Tehmina & Nguyen,Trang Thi Thuy & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Schodde,Richard, 2016. "From commodity discovery to production," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7823, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7823
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Regina Stéphanie Seri, 2021. "How giant discoveries of natural resources impact sovereign debt ratings in developing and emerging countries ?," CERDI Working papers hal-03144330, HAL.
    2. Distadio, Luiz Fernando & Ferguson, Andrew, 2022. "Mine offtake contracting, strategic alliances and the equity market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    3. Balde, Mamadou Tanou, 2020. "A brief history of time: Taxation and mineral production in developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Mihalyi,David & Scurfield,Thomas, 2020. "How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9384, The World Bank.
    5. Fernandez, Viviana, 2019. "Assessing cycles of mine production and prices of industrial metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Andrzej Gałaś & Alicja Kot-Niewiadomska & Hubert Czerw & Vladimir Simić & Michael Tost & Linda Wårell & Slávka Gałaś, 2021. "Impact of Covid-19 on the Mining Sector and Raw Materials Security in Selected European Countries," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-23, April.
    7. Regina Stéphanie Seri, 2021. "How giant discoveries of natural resources impact sovereign debt ratings in developing and emerging countries ?," Working Papers hal-03144330, HAL.
    8. Mihalyi, David, 2020. "The Long Road to First Oil," MPRA Paper 103725, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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