IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/war/wpaper/2013-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business Demography in Poland: Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Determinants of Firm Survival

Author

Listed:
  • Natalia Nehrebecka

    ()

  • Aneta Maria Dzik

    () (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

Abstract

The paper presents a model assigning a bankruptcy probability to a company, developed on the basis of individual data from balance sheets and income statements of Polish companies, collected by Central Statistical Office of Poland in the 2001 – 2010 period. Determinants for warning signals for bankruptcies were examined together with the possibilities of early identification of such signals. The research was based on a logistic regression performed on categorized variables transformed using a weight of evidence approach. Scoring methods were used to create an indicator for grading the companies in the case of bankruptcies. In the forecasting model of a possible bankruptcy in a year's horizon the highest weight was assigned to the indicator for the ability to cover financial costs which explained the company's ability to meet the interest payments and capital costs. Indebtedness, share of cash reserves in assets and sales’ revenues were considered in forecasting bankruptcies information regarding liquidity. Taking into account the direction of sales, the specialized exporters were least probable to go bankrupt. In the more generalized model which accounts for the macroeconomic situation the most important was the indicator for the ability to pay off debt. In the model forecasting bankruptcies three-years in advance - the early warning model - no dominant indicator was found. Weights of 20% were assigned to the indicators of liquidity, current assets turnover and the return on sales.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalia Nehrebecka & Aneta Maria Dzik, 2013. "Business Demography in Poland: Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Determinants of Firm Survival," Working Papers 2013-08, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2013-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/inf/wyd/WP/WNE_WP93.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2013
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm survival; micro-data; Polish companies; scoring methods;

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2013-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marcin Bąba). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/fesuwpl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.