IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vuw/vuwecf/33477.html

A Structural VAR Approach to Estimating Budget Balance Targets

Author

Listed:
  • Buckle, Robert A.
  • Kim, Kunhong
  • Tam, Julie

Abstract

The Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994 states that, as a principle of responsible fiscal management, a New Zealand government should ensure total Crown debt is at a prudent level by ensuring total operating expenses do not exceed total operating revenues. In this paper a structural VAR model is estimated to evaluate the impact on the government's cash operating surplus (or budget balance) of four independent disturbances: supply, fiscal, real private demand, and nominal disturbances. Based on the distribution of these disturbances, stochastic simulations are undertaken to derive the level of the ex ante cash budget balance needed to achieve an actual cash budget balance, at a given level of probability, at some future time horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Tam, Julie, 2001. "A Structural VAR Approach to Estimating Budget Balance Targets," Working Paper Series 33477, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:33477
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/33477
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Robert Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam, 2002. "A structural var approach to estimating budget balance targets," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 149-175.
    4. John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Iris Claus & Aaron Gill & Boram Lee & Nathan McLellan, 2006. "An empirical investigation of fiscal policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. William Irungu Ng'Ang'A & Julien Chevallier & Simon Wagura Ndiritu, 2019. "Primary balance dynamics and public debt sustainability in Kenya," Working Papers halshs-02120613, HAL.
    7. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    8. Angela Barnes & Steve Leith, 2001. "Budget Management That Counts: Recent Approaches to Budget and Fiscal Management in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/24, New Zealand Treasury.
    9. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
    10. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Accuracy Of General Government Balance Forecasts In Romania," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7(1), pages 167-178, March.
    11. John Janssen, 2001. "New Zealand's Fiscal Policy Framework: Experience and Evolution," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/25, New Zealand Treasury.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:33477. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library Technology Services (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/egvuwnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.