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Euro-Area Sovereign Yield Dynamics: the role of order imbalance

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  • Menkveld, Albert J.

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

  • Cheung, Yiu C.
  • Jong, Frank de

Abstract

We study sovereign yield dynamics and order flow in the largest euro-area treasury markets. We exploit unique transaction data to explain daily yield changes in the ten­year government bands of Italy, France, Belgium, and Germany. We use a state space model to decompose these changes into (i) a benchmark yield innovation, (ii) a yield spread common factor innovation, (iii) country-specific innovations, and (iv) (transitory) microstructure effects. We relate changes in each of these factors to national order imbalance and find that Italian order imbalance impacts the common factor innovation, French and Belgian order imbalance impact country-specific innovations, and German order imbalance only changes yields temporarily. Order imbalance, however, does not have explanatory power for the most important factor: benchmark yield innovations.

Suggested Citation

  • Menkveld, Albert J. & Cheung, Yiu C. & Jong, Frank de, 2006. "Euro-Area Sovereign Yield Dynamics: the role of order imbalance," Serie Research Memoranda 0006, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    • Handle: RePEc:vua:wpaper:2006-6
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    2. Panagiotis Panagiotou & Xu Jiang & Angel Gavilan, 2023. "The determinants of liquidity commonality in the Euro-area sovereign bond market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1144-1186, July.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2011. "Price formation on the EuroMTS platform," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 229-233.
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro & Paesani, Paolo, 2012. "Quoted spreads and trade imbalance dynamics in the European Treasury bond market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 173-182.
    6. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Does the "Bund" dominate price discovery in Euro bond futures? Examining information shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1057-1072, May.
    7. Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad & Mohamad, Azhar, 2015. "Order imbalance and selling aggression under a shorting ban: Evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 368-379.
    8. Coluzzi, Chiara & Ginebri, Sergio & Turco, Manuel, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing the Liquidity of the Italian Treasury Security Wholesale Secondary Market," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08044, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    9. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957.
    10. Buis, Boyd & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2020. "Expected issuance fees and market liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    11. Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The Informational Content of Trades on the EuroMTS Platform," ISAE Working Papers 97, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).

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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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