Pricing Financial Derivatives on Weather Sensitive Assets
We study pricing of derivatives when the underlying asset is sensitive to weather variables such as temperature, rainfall and others. We shall use temperature as a generic example of an important weather variable. In reality, such a variable would only account for a portion of the variability in the price of an asset. However, for the purpose of launching this line of investigations we shall assume that the asset price is a deterministic function of temperature and consider two functional forms: quadratic and exponential. We use the simplest mean-reverting process to model the temperature, the AR(1) time series model and its continuous-time counterpart the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. In continuous time, we use the replicating portfolio approach to obtain partial differential equations for a European call option price under both functional forms of the relationship between the weather-sensitive asset price and temperature. For the continuous-time model we also derive a binomial approximation, a finite difference method and a Monte Carlo simulation to numerically solve our option price PDE. In the discrete time model, we derive the distribution of the underlying asset and a formula for the value of a European call option under the physical probability measure.
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