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Unfulfilled Expectations and Labor Market Interactions: A Statistical Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment

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  • Ellis Scharfenaker, Duncan K. Foley

Abstract

We examine the equilibrium wage and employment outcomes in a labor market model comprised of informationally constrained workers and employers whose labor market interactions have a non-zero impact on wages. The model endogenizes employment interactions between workers and employers in terms of a quantal response equilibrium and produces an equilibrium level of frictional unemployment as a statistical feature of a decentralized labor market. Shocks to the economy can produce short-run equilibrium involuntary unemployment arising from unfulfilled expectations. Even after agents align their expectations with market outcomes, unless they also adjust their expectations of the scale of statistical fluctuations in wages, a negative shock to demand can result in higher levels of equilibrium unemployment. In this way the model exhibits a particular type of non-neutrality of money in the short-run and long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellis Scharfenaker, Duncan K. Foley, 2021. "Unfulfilled Expectations and Labor Market Interactions: A Statistical Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2021_03, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2021_03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Filip Matêjka & Alisdair McKay, 2015. "Rational Inattention to Discrete Choices: A New Foundation for the Multinomial Logit Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 272-298, January.
    2. Foley Duncan K., 1994. "A Statistical Equilibrium Theory of Markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 321-345, April.
    3. Scharfenaker, Ellis, 2020. "Implications of quantal response statistical equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Ellis Scharfenaker & Duncan Foley, 2017. "Maximum Entropy Estimation of Statistical Equilibrium in Economic Quantal Response Models," Working Papers 1710, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised May 2017.
    5. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    6. Peter A. Diamond, 1982. "Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(2), pages 217-227.
    7. Duncan K. Foley, 1996. "Statistical Equilibrium In A Simple Labor Market," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 125-147, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Benèík, 2022. "United in Diversity. Labor Markets in the CEE Countries," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(4), pages 333-348, April.
    2. Michal Benèík, 2022. "United in Diversity. Labor Markets in the CEE Countries," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(4), pages 333-348, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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