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A probabilistic measure to state fragility

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  • Joan Margalef

Abstract

This paper develops a novel measure of state fragility: the probability of state failure. We define state failure as the inability to perform core functions and operationalize it through observable breakdowns—conflict, territorial control, institutional deficiency, and public service deterioration. Using a machine-learning approach, we estimate failure probabilities for 160 countries and assess their predictive performance and key predictors. The proposed measure is forward-looking, continuous, comparable across countries and over time, and exhibits strong predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Joan Margalef, 2026. "A probabilistic measure to state fragility," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2026-20, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chuku Chuku & Kenneth Onye, 2019. "Macroeconomic consequences of state fragility in sub‐Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 1101-1140, August.
    2. Simon Feeny & Mark McGillivray, 2009. "Aid allocation to fragile states: Absorptive capacity constraints," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 618-632.
    3. Guido Tabellini, 2005. "The Role of the State in Economic Development," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 283-303, May.
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