Why do so many people train to teach but never teach? Assessing the role of preferences and shock using longitudinal survey data

Teacher shortages are a persistent challenge across many countries, yet a substantial minority of newly qualified teachers never enter employment. Why do people invest time and money gaining a qualification but then choose not to teach? Two leading explanations are (1) that those who leave have job preferences less suited to teaching than those who stay, and (2) that those who leave experience more "reality shock" during training. This research uses two-wave longitudinal survey data from 409 trainee teachers in England (2024-2026), measuring job preferences via a conjoint experiment and reality shock via expectation-experience comparisons towards the end of training, alongside employment outcomes the following year. We find little evidence that leavers differ from stayers in their preferences. Trainees report both negative and positive shocks, and negative shock is associated with lower intentions to enter teaching, but does not predict actual entry. Our findings suggest that the search for explanations should look beyond preferences and shock, including in other countries where the same qualification-to-employment gap has been observed.