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A Generalized SSAR Model and Predictive Distribution with an Application to VaR

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  • Naoto Kunitomo

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Seisho Sato

    (Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

Abstract

The asymmetrical movements between the downward and upward phases of the sample paths of time series have been sometimes observed. By generalizing the SSAR (simultaneous switching autoregressive) models, we introduce a class of nonlinear time series models having the asymmetrical sample paths in the upward and downward phases. We show that the class of generalized SSAR models is useful for estimating the asymmetrical predictive distribution given the present and past information. Applications to the prediction based on the predictive median and the estimation of the VaR (value at risk) in financial risk management are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Naoto Kunitomo & Seisho Sato, 2001. "A Generalized SSAR Model and Predictive Distribution with an Application to VaR," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-122, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2001cf122
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    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2001/2001cf122.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Naoto Kunitomo & Seisho Sato, 1999. "Stationary and Non-stationary Simultaneous Switching Autoregressive Models with an Application to Financial Time Series," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 161-190, June.
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