Provincial Nominee Program: Recent trends and provincial differences in earnings outcomes

The actual earnings of provincial nominees and their relative earnings (to those of other economic immigrants) are important indicators of the ability of the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) to meet provincial labour market needs. This paper updates national-level research on the earnings patterns of provincial nominees and, for the first time, provides provincial comparisons. The focus is on the short- and longer-run earnings of PNP principal applicants who entered Canada from 2005 to 2019. Results show that there were significant differences among provinces in the average earnings of provincial nominees. The highest earnings, both at landing and at five to six years after landing, were observed in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia, and the lowest in the Atlantic provinces, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. A significant proportion of the observed provincial differences in earnings was related to differences in economic conditions and the background characteristics of PNP principal applicants. However, even after accounting for these factors, significant earnings differences across provinces persisted. Results also show that, among the 2005-to-2014 landing cohorts, entry earnings (one to two years after landing) were higher among provincial nominees than immigrants in the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), but the latter group had faster earnings growth and surpassed provincial nominees after five years. However, the entry earnings advantage of provincial nominees over FSWP immigrants was reversed in the 2015-to-2019 cohort, with higher entry earnings reported by FSWP immigrants than by PNP immigrants. Multivariate analysis shows that factors such as pre-landing Canadian work and study experience, educational attainment, official language ability, source region, age, and unemployment rate in the province of residence explained almost none of the reversal in entry earnings between FSWP and PNP immigrants that occurred with the 2010-to-2014 and 2015-to-2019 landing cohorts. The paper concludes with a discussion of other possible explanations for the decline in actual and relative PNP immigrant earnings, focusing on the implementation of the educational credential assessment and the Express Entry selection system.