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A multiscale network-based model of contagion dynamics: heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination

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  • Maira Aguiar
  • Giovanni Dosi
  • Damian A. Knopoff
  • Maria Enrica Virgillito

Abstract

Lockdown and vaccination policies have been the major concern in the last year in order to contain the SARS-CoV-2 infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we present a model able to evaluate alternative lockdown policies and vaccination strategies. Our approach integrates and refines the multiscale model proposed by Bellomo et al. , 2020, analyzing alternative network structures and bridging two perspectives to study complexity of living systems. Inside dierent matrices of contacts we explore the impact of closures of distinct nodes upon the overall contagion dynamics. Social distancing is shown to be more effective when targeting the reduction of contacts among and inside the most vulnerable nodes, namely hospitals/nursing homes. Moreover, our results suggest that school closures alone would not signicantly affect the infection dynamics and the number of deaths in the population. Finally, we investigate a scenario with immunization in order to understand the effectiveness of targeted vaccination policies towards the most vulnerable individuals. Our model agrees with the current proposed vaccination strategy prioritising the most vulnerable segment of the population to reduce deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Maira Aguiar & Giovanni Dosi & Damian A. Knopoff & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2021. "A multiscale network-based model of contagion dynamics: heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination," LEM Papers Series 2021/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Armanda Cetrulo & Dario Guarascio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "The Privilege of Working From Home at the Time of Social Distancing," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 142-147, May.
    2. Giovanni Dosi, 2021. "Some policy lessons from medical/therapeutic responses to the COVID-19 Crisis: A rich research system for knowledge generation and dysfunctional institutions for its exploitation," LEM Papers Series 2021/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Nicola Bellomo & Richard Bingham & Mark A.J. Chaplain & Giovanni Dosi & Guido Forni & Damian A. Knopoff & John Lowengrub & Reidun Twarock & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "A multi-scale model of virus pandemic: Heterogeneous interactive entities in a globally connected world," LEM Papers Series 2020/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Giovanni Dosi, 2021. "Policy Lessons From Medical Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(6), pages 337-340, November.
    5. Ganna Rozhnova & Christiaan H. Dorp & Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen & Martin C. J. Bootsma & Janneke H. H. M. Wijgert & Marc J. M. Bonten & Mirjam E. Kretzschmar, 2021. "Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Pareschi, Lorenzo & Toscani, Giuseppe, 2013. "Interacting Multiagent Systems: Kinetic equations and Monte Carlo methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199655465.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva-Oller, Javier & Navarro-González, F.J. & Ceberio, Josu & Luebben, Giulia, 2024. "A network-based model to assess vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic by using Bayesian optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Dosi, Giovanni & Soete, Luc, 2022. "On the syndemic nature of crises: A Freeman perspective," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).
    3. Stefano Costa & Stefano De Santis & Giovanni Dosi & Roberto Monducci & Angelica Sbardella & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2021. "Firm responses to the pandemic crisis: sticky capabilites and widespread restructuring," LEM Papers Series 2021/48, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemic; COVID-19; epidemiological models; kinetic theory; active particles; spatial patterns; networks; vaccination; health policies.;
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