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Wealth and Price Distribution by Diffusive Approximation in a Repeated Prediction Market

Listed author(s):
  • Giulio Bottazzi
  • Daniele Giachini

The approximate agents' wealth and price invariant densities of a repeated prediction market model is derived using the Fokker-Planck equation of the associated continuous-time jump process. We show that the approximation obtained from the evolution of log-wealth difference can be reliably exploited to compute all the quantities of interest in all the acceptable parameter space. When the risk aversion of the trader is high enough, we are able to derive an explicit closed-form solution for the price distribution which is asymptotically correct.

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Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2016/13.

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Date of creation: 04 Mar 2016
Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2016/13
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  1. Scalas, Enrico, 2006. "The application of continuous-time random walks in finance and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 362(2), pages 225-239.
  2. L. C. MacLean & W. T. Ziemba & G. Blazenko, 1992. "Growth Versus Security in Dynamic Investment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(11), pages 1562-1585, November.
  3. Alina Beygelzimer & John Langford & David Pennock, 2012. "Learning Performance of Prediction Markets with Kelly Bettors," Papers 1201.6655, arXiv.org.
  4. Bottazzi, Giulio & Dindo, Pietro, 2014. "Evolution and market behavior with endogenous investment rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 121-146.
  5. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo, 2015. "Drift criteria for persistence of discrete stochastic processes on the line," LEM Papers Series 2015/26, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  6. Leonard Maclean & William Ziemba & Yuming Li, 2005. "Time to wealth goals in capital accumulation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 343-355.
  7. repec:reg:rpubli:460 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2016. "Far from the Madding Crowd: Collective Wisdom in Prediction Markets," LEM Papers Series 2016/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
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