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Of Ants and Voters: Maximum Entropy Prediction of Agent-Based Models with Recruitment

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  • Sylvain Barde

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Maximum entropy predictions are made for the Kirman ant model as well as the Abrams-Strogatz model of language competition, also known as the voter model. In both cases the maximum entropy methodology provides good predictions of the limiting distribution of states, as was already the case for the Schelling model of segregation. An additional contribution, the analysis of the models reveals the key role played by relative entropy and the model in controlling the time horizon of the prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Barde, 2012. "Of Ants and Voters: Maximum Entropy Prediction of Agent-Based Models with Recruitment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09l8sao0qa3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Foley Duncan K., 1994. "A Statistical Equilibrium Theory of Markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 321-345, April.
    2. Alexis Toda, 2010. "Existence of a statistical equilibrium for an economy with endogenous offer sets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(3), pages 379-415, December.
    3. Alfarano, Simone & Milakovic, Mishael, 2009. "Network structure and N-dependence in agent-based herding models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 78-92, January.
    4. Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
    5. Sylvain Barde, 2012. "Back to the future: economic rationality and maximum entropy prediction," Studies in Economics 1202, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    6. Schelling, Thomas C, 1969. "Models of Segregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 488-493, May.
    7. Stauffer, Dietrich & Castelló, Xavier & Eguíluz, Víctor M. & San Miguel, Maxi, 2007. "Microscopic Abrams–Strogatz model of language competition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(2), pages 835-842.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Improving the toolbox. New advances in Agent-based and Computational Models," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 7-13.
    2. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Introduction. Improving the Toolbox," Post-Print hal-01053562, HAL.
    3. Sylvain Barde, 2012. "Back to the future: economic rationality and maximum entropy prediction," Studies in Economics 1202, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    4. Chiarella Carl & Di Guilmi Corrado, 2015. "The limit distribution of evolving strategies in financial markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 137-159, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    information entropy; agent based models; voters models;

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