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Of Ants and Voters. Maximum Entropy Prediction of Agent-Based Models with Recruitment


  • Sylvain Barde


Maximum entropy predictions are made for the Kirman ant model as well as the Abrams-Strogatz model of language competition, also known as the voter model. In both cases the maximum entropy methodology provides good predictions of the limiting distribution of states, as was already the case for the Schelling model of segregation. As an additional contribution, the analysis of the models reveals the key role played by relative entropy and the model in controlling the time horizon of the prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Barde, 2012. "Of Ants and Voters. Maximum Entropy Prediction of Agent-Based Models with Recruitment," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 147-175.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_124_0147

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
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    8. M. Gallegati & A. Palestrini & D. Gatti & E. Scalas, 2006. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Interacting Agents: The Variant Representative Agent Framework," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 1(1), pages 5-19, May.
    9. Arthur Lewbel, 1992. "Aggregation with Log-Linear Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(3), pages 635-642.
    10. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
    11. Weidlich, Wolfgang & Braun, Martin, 1992. "The Master Equation Approach to Nonlinear Economics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 233-265, October.
    12. Hinich, Melvin J. & Foster, John & Wild, Phillip, 2006. "Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 136-150, March.
    13. Alfarano, Simone & Milakovic, Mishael, 2009. "Network structure and N-dependence in agent-based herding models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 78-92, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Introduction. Improving the Toolbox," Post-Print hal-01053562, HAL.
    2. Sylvain Barde, 2012. "Back to the future: economic rationality and maximum entropy prediction," Studies in Economics 1202, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Introduction. Improving the Toolbox: New Advances in Agent-Based and Computational Models," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3ku, Sciences Po.


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