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Cohort Effects in Wages and Promotions

Author

Listed:
  • Illoong Kwon

    (Department of Economics, State University of New York at Albany)

  • Eva Meyersson Milgrom

    () (Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University)

Abstract

This paper studies the long-term effect of business cycle, employment rate and employment growth rate on later wages and promotions. Using Swedish employer-employee match data, we find that workers who enter the labor market during a recovery phase of a business cycle (when the employment rate is still low but employment growth is high) receive higher-than-average wages in the long-run. However, these long-term effects on wages are almost entirely driven by the differences in promotion speeds between cohorts. Workers starting in a recovery period are hired into slightly lower ranks, but are promoted at a higher speed than comparable workers during a contraction period. Simple theoretical models based on downward rigidity of wages and promotions, long-term contract, or stigma cannot explain a broad pattern of our findings, but models based on human capital, matching, and cyclical hiring can.

Suggested Citation

  • Illoong Kwon & Eva Meyersson Milgrom, 2007. "Cohort Effects in Wages and Promotions," Discussion Papers 07-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:07-025
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    Cited by:

    1. Sylvia Frühwirth‐Schnatter & Christoph Pamminger & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter‐Ebmer, 2012. "Labor market entry and earnings dynamics: Bayesian inference using mixtures‐of‐experts Markov chain clustering," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1116-1137, November.
    2. Kunze, Astrid, 2013. "Gender differences in career progression: Does the effect of children capture low work effort?," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79705, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    4. Illong Kwon & Eva Meyersson Milgrom, 2010. "Working for Female Managers: Gender Hierarchy in the Workplace," Discussion Papers 10-012, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter, 2010. "Does Wage Persistence Matter for Employment Fluctuations? Evidence from Displaced Workers," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-21, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; employment; wage; promotion;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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