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Global Food Price Shock and the Poor in Egypt and Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Soheir Aboulenein
  • Heba El Laithy
  • Omneia Helmy
  • Hanaa Kheir-El-Din
  • Liudmyla Kotusenko
  • Maryla Maliszewska
  • Dina Mandour
  • Wojciech Paczynski

Abstract

The global food price shock of 2006-2008 has particularly affected poorer strata of populations in several developing countries. In Egypt and some other countries it has put food subsidy schemes to the test. This paper develops two comparable computable general equilibrium models for Egypt and Ukraine which are used to simulate direct and indirect impacts of the food price surge and various policy options on the performance of the main macroeconomic indicators as well as on poverty outcomes. The results illustrate the limited ability of realistic policy responses to mitigate negative social consequences of an external price shock. Food import tariff cuts are a partial remedy faring better than other analysed options. Furthermore, the Egyptian system of food subsidies needs substantial reforms limiting the related fiscal burden and improving the targeting of the poor population.

Suggested Citation

  • Soheir Aboulenein & Heba El Laithy & Omneia Helmy & Hanaa Kheir-El-Din & Liudmyla Kotusenko & Maryla Maliszewska & Dina Mandour & Wojciech Paczynski, 2010. "Global Food Price Shock and the Poor in Egypt and Ukraine," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 403, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0403
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    File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/30758916_CNSA_403%20final%20version.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan Matthews & Jean-Christophe Bureau, 2005. "EU Agricultural Policy: What Developing Countries Need to Know," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp91, IIIS.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    food subsidy; agriculture; price shock; poverty; Ukraine; Egypt;

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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