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Important Channels of Transmission Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa

Author

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  • Alain Kabundi
  • Eliphas Ndou
  • Nombulelo Gumata

Abstract

This paper investigates the different channels of transmission of monetary policy shock in South Africa in a data-rich environment. The analysis contains 165 quarterly variables observed from 2001Q1 to 2012Q2. We use a Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model, which can easily accommodate a large cross-section of variables without running out of degree of freedom. The benefit of this framework is its ability to handle different channels of transmission of monetary policy simultaneously, instead of using different models. The model includes five channels of transmission: credit, interest rate, asset prices, exchange rate, and expectations. The results show that all channels seem potent, but their magnitudes and importance differ. The results indicate that the interest rate channel is the most important transmitter of the shock, followed by the exchange rate, expectations, and credit channels. The asset price channel is somewhat weak.
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Suggested Citation

  • Alain Kabundi & Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata, 2013. "Important Channels of Transmission Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa," ERSA Working Paper Series 375, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    • Handle: RePEc:rza:ersawp:375
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Pirozhkova, Ekaterina & Viegi, Nicola, 2025. "The bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission in South Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Alexander Lubis & Rangga Pratama & Merlin Dwi Yunaniar & Wahyu Agung Nugroho & Dian Prima Susiandri, 2025. "Exit Policy, Liquidity Normalization, and lts Implications on Central Bank Policy Transmission," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 28(1), pages 85-116, April.
    4. Serena Merrino, 2021. "Wage inequality under inflationtargeting in South Africa," Working Papers 11018, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2023. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Face of Uncertainty: The Real Macroeconomic Impact of a Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa during High and Low Uncertainty States," Working Papers 202331, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Kabundi, Alain & Schaling, Eric & Some, Modeste, 2015. "Monetary policy and heterogeneous inflation expectations in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 109-117.
    7. Tumisang Loate & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via the Banks' Balance Sheet - Does Bank Size Matter?," Working Papers 202109, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. repec:rza:wpaper:598 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Johannes PS Sheefeni, 2017. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Namibia: A Bayesian VAR Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(5), pages 169-184.
    10. Serena Merrino, 2020. "Wage inequality under inflation-targeting in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-86, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Awdeh Ali, 2018. "Long-run and Short-run Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in Lebanon," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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