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Trade effects of the EU-Korea free trade agreement: A comparative analysis of expected and observed outcomes


  • Forizs, Virág

    (DG Trade)

  • Nilsson, Lars

    () (DG Trade)


It is common that observers simply look at the bilateral trade figures following the introduction of a free trade agreement (FTA) and try assess whether the agreement has increased trade or not (since trying to assess what the level of trade would have been in the theoretical absence of the FTA is too complex). The present short note therefore compares the economic assessment of the negotiated outcome of the EU-Korea FTA, carried out for the European Commission by CEPII/ ATLASS, with observed data. Our results point to sound projections against observed data at the aggregate level and in the largest sectors such as Machinery as opposed to trade in less important sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Forizs, Virág & Nilsson, Lars, 2016. "Trade effects of the EU-Korea free trade agreement: A comparative analysis of expected and observed outcomes," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2016-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2016_002

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Csilla Lakatos & Lars Nilsson, 2017. "The EU-Korea FTA: anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 179-198, February.
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    1. repec:eee:jjieco:v:51:y:2019:i:c:p:110-128 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:kap:asiaeu:v:15:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10308-017-0485-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kimura, Fukunari & Okubo, Toshihiro & Steininger, Marina, 2019. "Quantifying the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 110-128.

    More about this item


    International trade; EU; Korea; comparative analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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