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Coping with loss: the impact of natural disasters on developing countries' trade flows

Author

Listed:
  • Andrade da Silva, Jorge

    (Council of the European Union)

  • Cernat, Lucian

    (DG Trade)

Abstract

Developing countries are arguably the most affected by the increasing regularity and costs of natural disasters. In addition to the often impressive casualty figures, there can be systemic trade and development implications as well. Results from a simple model suggest that exports of affected small developing countries decline by 22% (whereas exports of larger developing countries are not significantly affected), and that such effects tend to last for about 3 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrade da Silva, Jorge & Cernat, Lucian, 2012. "Coping with loss: the impact of natural disasters on developing countries' trade flows," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2012-1, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2012_001
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    File URL: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/may/tradoc_149459.%201_coping%20with%20loss_impact%20of%20natural%20disasters_15.05.2012.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Ankai & Kouwoaye, Amèvi Rocard, 2019. "How do natural disasters affect services trade?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2019-12, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Permani, Risti & Xu, Xing, 2020. "The Nexus between Natural disasters, Supply Chains and Trade – Revisiting the Role of FTAs in Disaster Risk Reduction," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304269, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Eric Nazindigouba Kere & Somlanaré Romuald Kinda & Rasmané Ouedraogo, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Hurt Tax Resource Mobilization?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01242968, HAL.
    4. Osberghaus, Daniel, 2019. "The effects of natural disasters and weather variations on international trade: A review of the empirical literature," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-002, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Felix L. Friedt, 2021. "Natural disasters, aggregate trade resilience, and local disruptions: Evidence from Hurricane Katrina," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1081-1120, November.
    6. Risti Permani & Xing Xu, 2022. "The nexus between natural disasters, supply chains and trade—Revisiting the role of preferential trade agreements in disaster risk reduction," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3002-3030, October.
    7. Längle, Katharina & Xu, Ankai & Tian, Ruijie, 2021. "Assessing the supply chain effect of natural disasters: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    8. Mohan, Preeya S. & Ouattara, Bazoumana & Strobl, Eric, 2018. "Decomposing the Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disasters: A National Income Accounting Perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1-9.
    9. Yu, Jisang & Ijaz, Arusha, 2023. "Recovering from Natural Disaster through Exports: The Case of 2010 Pakistan Flood and EU Tariff Waiver on Pakistan Textile Exports," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335710, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Ruohan Wu, 2023. "Natural disasters, climate change, and structural transformation: A new perspective from international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1333-1377, May.
    11. Daniel Osberghaus, 2019. "The Effects of Natural Disasters and Weather Variations on International Trade and Financial Flows: a Review of the Empirical Literature," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 305-325, October.
    12. Laura Puzzello & Paul Raschky, 2014. "Global supply chains and natural disasters: implications for international trade," Chapters, in: Benno Ferrarini & David Hummels (ed.), Asia and Global Production Networks, chapter 4, pages 112-147, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Monge, Juan J. & McDonald, Garry W., 2020. "The Economy-Wide Value-at-Risk from the Exposure of Natural Capital to Climate Change and Extreme Natural Events: The Case of Wind Damage and Forest Recreational Services in New Zealand," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    14. Escalante, Luis Enrique & Maisonnave, Helene, 2022. "Impacts of climate disasters on women and food security in Bolivia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    15. Sandi, Eleni, 2021. "Estimating the Impact of Natural Disasters on Caribbean Exports," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 03, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    16. Mohan, Preeya, 2023. "The Impact of Tropical Storms on International Trade: Evidence from Eastern Caribbean Small Island Developing States," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13084, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Developing countries; international trade; natural disasters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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