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Flood Planning and Climate Forecasts at the Local Level

Author

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  • Wernstedt, Kris

    () (Resources for the Future)

  • Hersh, Robert

Abstract

We examine the use of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts for flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. Using theories of resource mobilization as a conceptual foundation, the paper relies on: 1) case studies of three communities vulnerable to flooding that have had access to long-term forecasts of ENSO conditions; and 2) analysis of data collected from a survey of nearly 60 local emergency managers, planners, and public works staff. We find that understanding the regulatory machinery and other institutions involved in using climate forecasts is critical to more effective use of these forecasts. Forecast use could be promoted by: 1) an extension service to broker climate information; 2) the identification or creation of federal authorities to fund activities to mitigate ENSO impacts; and 3) the proactive use of ENSO signals to identify areas most likely to be influenced by climate anomalies.

Suggested Citation

  • Wernstedt, Kris & Hersh, Robert, 2002. "Flood Planning and Climate Forecasts at the Local Level," Discussion Papers dp-02-27, Resources For the Future.
  • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-02-27
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    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-02-27.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter J. May & Raymond J. Burby, 1996. "Coercive versus cooperative policies: Comparing intergovernmental mandate performance," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 171-201.
    2. Wernstedt, Kris & Hersh, Robert, 2001. "When ENSO Reigns, It Pours: Climate Forecasts in Flood Planning," Discussion Papers dp-01-56-, Resources For the Future.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    flooding; ENSO; La Niña; climate variability; climate forecast; natural hazards; water policy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

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