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Career Choice and Wage Growth

Author

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  • Ronni Pavan

    () (Economics University of Rochester)

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a search model in which career-specific and firm-specific matches determine job mobility and wage growth. Each worker-firm and worker-career relationship is characterized by a match that evolves stochastically over time. At each period, a worker has three options. He can: 1) stay at his current firm, 2) draw a new firm-specific match by changing employer or 3) change career by drawing a new career and firm-specific match. I calculate the likelihood function treating the model as a non-Gaussian state-space model where the unobserved state variables are the firm and career matches and the non-gaussianity is due to the selection process. I use the structural estimates to calculate ex-ante and ex-post returns to firm tenure or career experience. The implied estimates of the returns are different from the estimates that I would find using standard IV techniques. In order to understand the causes of these differences, I show that these IV techniques are not able to consistently estimate the parameters of a search model like the one presented in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronni Pavan, 2006. "Career Choice and Wage Growth," 2006 Meeting Papers 504, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:504
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathaniel Baum-Snow & Ronni Pavan, 2012. "Understanding the City Size Wage Gap," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 88-127.
    2. Alexandros Zangelidis, 2008. "Occupational And Industry Specificity Of Human Capital In The British Labour Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 420-443, September.
    3. Bowlus, Audra J. & Liu, Huju, 2013. "The contributions of search and human capital to earnings growth over the life cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 305-331.
    4. Shintaro Yamaguchi, 2012. "Tasks and Heterogeneous Human Capital," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-53.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Comerford & Jose V Rodriguez Mora & Michael J Watts, 2017. "The rise of meritocracy and the inheritance of advantage," Working Papers 1716, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    2. Gervais, Martin & Jaimovich, Nir & Siu, Henry E. & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2016. "What should I be when I grow up? Occupations and unemployment over the life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 54-70.
    3. Bublitz, Elisabeth, 2013. "Matching Skills of Individuals and Firms Along the Career Path," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79742, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Aspen Gorry, 2016. "Experience and worker flows," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(1), pages 225-255, March.
    5. Michele Battisti, 2016. "Individual Wage Growth: The Role of Industry Experience," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 40-70, January.
    6. Paul Sullivan, 2010. "A Dynamic Analysis Of Educational Attainment, Occupational Choices, And Job Search," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 289-317, February.
    7. Josh Kinsler & Ronni Pavan, 2015. "The Specificity of General Human Capital: Evidence from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(4), pages 933-972.
    8. Jean-Marc Robin & Costas Meghir & Christian Dustmann & Jerome Adda, 2013. "Career Progression, Economic Downturns, and Skills," 2013 Meeting Papers 993, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. repec:spr:izalbr:v:6:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40172-017-0053-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Schmutte, Ian M., 2014. "Free to Move? A Network Analytic Approach for Learning the Limits to Job Mobility," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 49-61.
    11. Shintaro Yamaguchi, 2012. "Tasks and Heterogeneous Human Capital," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-53.
    12. Carl Sanders & Christopher Taber, 2012. "Life-Cycle Wage Growth and Heterogeneous Human Capital," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 399-425, July.
    13. Maxim Poletaev & Chris Robinson, 2008. "Human Capital Specificity: Evidence from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles and Displaced Worker Surveys, 1984-2000," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(3), pages 387-420, July.
    14. Jin, Xin, 2014. "The Signaling Role of Note Being Promoted: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 58484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Xin Jin, 2014. "The Signaling Role of Not Being Promoted: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 0314, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    16. Bowlus, Audra J. & Liu, Huju, 2013. "The contributions of search and human capital to earnings growth over the life cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 305-331.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Career choice; wage growth; structural estimation; job mobility;

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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