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Speculative Bubbles and the Cross-Sectional Variation in Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Brooks

    (ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading)

  • Keith Anderson

    (The York Management School)

Abstract

Evidence suggests that rational, periodically collapsing speculative bubbles may be pervasive in stock markets globally, but there is no research that considers them at the individual stock level. In this study we develop and test an empirical asset pricing model that allows for speculative bubbles to affect stock returns. We show that stocks incorporating larger bubbles yield higher returns. The bubble deviation, at the stock level as opposed to the industry or market level, is a priced source of risk that is separate from the standard market risk, size and value factors. We demonstrate that much of the common variation in stock returns that can be attributable to market risk is due to the co-movement of bubbles rather than being driven fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Brooks & Keith Anderson, 2012. "Speculative Bubbles and the Cross-Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2013-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading, revised Nov 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2013-01
    as

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    2. Yiannis Karavias & Stella Spilioti & Elias Tzavalis, 2021. "Investor sentiment effects on share price deviations from their intrinsic values based on accounting fundamentals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1593-1621, May.
    3. Brooks, Chris & Godfrey, Chris & Hillenbrand, Carola & Money, Kevin, 2016. "Do investors care about corporate taxes?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-248.
    4. Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty in the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 18-33.
    5. Leong, Minhao & Alexeev, Vitali & Kwok, Simon, 2025. "Managing cryptocurrency risk exposures in equity portfolios: Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    6. Julián Fernández Mejía & Jorge Mario Uribe, 2016. "Análisis de procesos explosivos en el precio de los activos financieros: evidencia alrededor del mundo," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 8(1), pages 83-103.
    7. Ayesha Liaqat & Mian Sajid Nazir & Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Identification of multiple stock bubbles in an emerging market: application of GSADF approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 301-326, August.
    8. Ullah, Irfan & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2021. "Identifying Phases of Ebullience in EFTA Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 109633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Tran, Thi Bich Ngoc, 2017. "Speculative bubbles in emerging stock markets and macroeconomic factors: A new empirical evidence for Asia and Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 454-467.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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