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The employment effects of trade policy reform in Myanmar

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  • Ayoki, Milton

Abstract

This paper investigates employment responses to trade liberalisation in a developing economy, Myanmar. Using data from the 2014 Census and the 2017, labour force survey and previous surveys contained in Myanmar Statistical Yearbook, 2017, we find that trade liberalization did not affect the relative size of industry sectors in terms of employment. The OLS results finds support for the theoretical predictions of differential responses to trade reforms between sectors. Conversely, while empirical support is found for tariff reduction in influencing sector level employment, the tariff predictors are weaker overall than the sector productivity and competitiveness (in export market) predictors—implying that trade policy reforms need to be correctly tailored to raising productivity of labour force and sector competitiveness if their impact on employment is to be effectively realised.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayoki, Milton, 2020. "The employment effects of trade policy reform in Myanmar," MPRA Paper 98090, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98090
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ayoki, Milton, 2019. "Are the Gulf States poised to become Uganda’s No. 1 trading partners? Emerging trends and imperatives," MPRA Paper 93646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Xiaolan Fu, 2004. "Exports, FDI and Employment Growth in China," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Development in China, chapter 5, pages 76-96, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Xiaolan Fu & V.N.Balasubramanyam, 2004. "Exports, FDI, Growth Of Small Rural Enterprises And Employment In China," Working Papers wp286, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    4. Brian McCaig & Nina Pavcnik, 2018. "Export Markets and Labor Allocation in a Low-Income Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1899-1941, July.
    5. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Tregenna, Fiona, 2019. "Trade liberalization and local labor market adjustment in South Africa," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 448-467.
    6. Ha, Hoi Van & Tran, Tuyen Quang, 2017. "International Trade and Employment: A Quantile Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 32(3), pages 531-557.
    7. Kunal Sen, 2009. "International Trade and Manufacturing Employment: Is India following the Footsteps of Asia or Africa?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 765-777, November.
    8. Harrigan, James, 2011. "Carl Davidson and Steven J. Matusz, International Trade with Equilibrium Unemployment , Princeton University Press (2010)," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 131-132, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN; employment; international trade; trade policy; revealed comparative advantage; Asia Pacific; Myanmar;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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