The globalization process and the productive structure of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s: an input-output approach

In the 1990s the Brazilian economy went through a lot of changes, caused mainly by the monetary stabilization and the globalization process occurred. To study the impact of this process over the Brazilian economy, one should go beyond the analysis of growth indicators, like GDP or inflation indexes, and use sectoral analysis to better understand what were the real structural changes in the economy. To do so, this study makes use of yearly national input-output tables, 1990 to 1999, constructed at the level of 42 sectors. The tables from 1990 to 1996 were obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Statistics (IBGE), while the ones for 1997 to 1999 were estimated from the Brazilian National Accounts using the methodology presented by Guilhoto et al (2002). The main indicators used in the analysis were: a) multipliers of production and employment decomposed into their components; b) economic landscapes; and c) backward and forward linkages (Hirschman/Rasmussen and Pure). To better understand the changes take took place in the economy, the results were also aggregate at the level of 5 macro sectors. The study shows that the openness process had an impact on the productive structure of the Brazilian economy with sectors gaining and losing in this process. The agricultural sector went to a process o modernization in which, on one hand it increased its links in the economy, but, on the other hand reduced its capacity of generate employment. The industrial sector became more dependable on imported inputs for its production process, with a reduction in its level of employment. To the service sector was left the task of absorb the workers freed and/or not absorbed by the other sectors.