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Estimating term structure changes using principal component analysis in Indian sovereign bond market

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  • Nath, Golaka

Abstract

This paper analyses the India sovereign yield to find out the principal factors affecting the term structure of interest rate changes. We apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on our data consisting of zero coupon interest rates derived from government bond trading using Nelson-Siegel functional form. This decomposition of the yield curve highlights important relationship between identified factors and metrics of the term structure shape. The empirical findings support statistical similarities between the Indian yield curve and term structure studies of major countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Nath, Golaka, 2012. "Estimating term structure changes using principal component analysis in Indian sovereign bond market," MPRA Paper 39229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39229
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter H. Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Papers (Old Series) 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2011. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 429-457.
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    4. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Jul), pages 9-32.
    5. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    6. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-053 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomasz Piotr Kostyra, 2024. "Forecasting the yield curve for Poland with the PCA and machine learning," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(4), pages 459-478.
    2. Lim Tze Yee & Tony She & Kezia Irene, 2019. "Application of Principal Component Analysis in Chinese Sovereign Bond Market and Principal Component-Based Fixed Income Immunization," Papers 1911.07288, arXiv.org.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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