IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/22328.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Month-of-the-year Effect: Evidence from GARCH models in Fifty Five Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanis, Eleftherios

Abstract

This paper studies the month of the year effect, where January effect presents positive and the highest returns of the other months of the year. In order to investigate the specific calendar effect in global level, fifty five stock market indices from fifty one countries are examined. Symmetric GARCH models are applied and based on asymmetries tests asymmetric GARCH models are estimated. The main findings of this study is that a December effect is found on twenty stock markets, with higher returns on the specific month, while February effect is presented in nine stock markets, followed by January and April effects in seven and six stock markets respectively. These patterns provide positive and highest returns on the mentioned months, while a pattern where a specific month gives a persistence signal of negative returns couldn’t be found.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanis, Eleftherios, 2009. "The Month-of-the-year Effect: Evidence from GARCH models in Fifty Five Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 22328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22328
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22328/1/MPRA_paper_22328.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77633/1/MPRA_paper_22328.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. T. C. Mills & C. Siriopoulos & R. N. Markellos & D. Harizanis, 2000. "Seasonality in the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 137-142.
    3. Dimitar Tonchev & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2004. "Calendar effects in Eastern European financial markets: evidence from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1035-1043.
    4. Wessel Marquering & Johan Nisser & Toni Valla, 2006. "Disappearing anomalies: a dynamic analysis of the persistence of anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 291-302.
    5. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2001. "Month of the Year Effect and January Effect in Pre-WWI Stock Returns: Evidence from a Non-linear GARCH Model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Zainudin Arsad & J. Andrew Coutts, 1997. "Security price anomalies in the London International Stock Exchange: a 60 year perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 455-464.
    9. Christos Floros, 2008. "The monthly and trading month effects in Greek stock market returns: 1996-2002," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(7), pages 453-464, June.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weber Christoph S. & Nickol Philipp, 2016. "More on Calendar Effects on Islamic Stock Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 65-113, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    seasonality; stock returns; calendar effects; month of the year effect; asymmetric GARCH models; asymmetry tests; January effect;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22328. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.