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On The Use and Misuse of Input-Output Based Impact Analysis in Evaluation

Author

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  • Grady, Patrick
  • Muller, R. Andrew

Abstract

Estimates of economic activity generated and jobs created that are derived using input-output analysis are often presented in program evaluations and confused with the benefits resultin g from die program. Two such cases are presented as examples. We argue that for two main reasons this type of analysis con stitutes a misuse of input-output analysis. First, input-output estimates generated using the Keynesian closed versions of input-output models are biased upwards because they ignore the price and financial feedbacks that tend to reduce multipliers in macro-economic models. Second, and more important, it is inappropria te to consider induced effects resulting from a particular program in isolation, because such effects can only be properly considered in the aggr egate at th e level of overall stabilization policy. In this paper we contend that cost-benefit analysis, with its assumption of full employment, is the most appropriate tool for analyzing the benefits resulting from particular programs. Input-output analysis should be confin ed to providing estimates of die industr ial or regional breakdown of the direct impact of a program or of the employment impacts of program spending. It should not be used to generate Keynesian multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Grady, Patrick & Muller, R. Andrew, 1986. "On The Use and Misuse of Input-Output Based Impact Analysis in Evaluation," MPRA Paper 22063, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22063
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22063/1/MPRA_paper_22063.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Günther, Jutta & Loose, Brigitte & Ludwig, Udo & Nulsch, Nicole, 2015. "Can R&D subsidies counteract the economic crisis? – Macroeconomic effects in Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 623-633.
    2. Ngaio Hotte & U. Sumaila, 2014. "How much could a tanker spill cost British Columbians?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 159-180, February.
    3. García-Muñiz, Ana Salomé & Vicente, María Rosalía, 2014. "ICT technologies in Europe: A study of technological diffusion and economic growth under network theory," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 360-370.
    4. Lazarov, Darko & Kocovski, Mitko, 2016. "Empirical Estimation Of The Multiplicative Effects Of Steel Industry In Macedonia By Using Input-Output Model," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
    5. Chun-Yan Kuo, 1997. "Evaluating the Social Cost of Job Creation," Development Discussion Papers 1991-12, JDI Executive Programs.
    6. Rebecca Bess & Zoë O. Ambargis, 2011. "Input-Output Models for Impact Analysis:Suggestions for Practitioners Using RIMS II Multipliers," BEA Working Papers 0081, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    input-output analysis; Keynesian multiplier; evaluation;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models

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