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Mean-Reverting Stochastic Processes, Evaluation of Forward Prices and Interest Rates

  • Makhankov, V. G.
  • Aguero-Granados, M. A.
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    We consider mean-reverting stochastic processes and build self-consistent models for forward price dynamics and some applications in power industries. These models are built using the ideas and equations of stochastic differential geometry in order to close the system of equations for the forward prices and their volatility. Some analytical solutions are presented in the one factor case and for specific regular forward price/interest rates volatility. Those models will also play a role of initial conditions for a stochastic process describing forward price and interest rates volatility. Subsequently, the curved manifold of the internal space i.e. a discrete version of the bond term space (the space of bond maturing) is constructed. The dynamics of the point of this internal space that correspond to a portfolio of different bonds is studied. The analysis of the discount bond forward rate dynamics, for which we employed the Stratonovich approach, permitted us to calculate analytically the regular and the stochastic volatilities. We compare our results with those known from the literature.

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18750/1/MPRA_paper_18750.pdf
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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18750.

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    Date of creation: 15 Nov 2009
    Date of revision: 19 Nov 2009
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18750
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    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
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