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La ley del descenso tendencial de la tasa de ganancia: Evidencia empírica para la economía española
[The Law of the Tendency of the Rate of Profit to Fall: Empirical Evidence for the Spanish Economy]

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  • López-Espejo, Iván

Abstract

This article examines the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall in the Spanish economy between 1960 and 2024, considering the organic composition of capital and the rate of surplus value as central variables. Its aim is to determine whether this law, formulated by Marx in Capital (Vol. III), continues to operate in the contemporary context. The methodology consists of transforming orthodox macroeconomic categories derived from the Spanish National Accounts (CNE), available in BDMACRO, into Marxist variables: constant capital (c), variable capital (v), and surplus value (pv). Based on these, historical series of the organic composition of capital (q), the rate of surplus value (pv'), and the rate of profit (g') are constructed, adjusted to constant prices to ensure temporal coherence and comparability. The results show a sustained increase in q and a slight decrease in pv', generating a tendential decline in g' with cyclical fluctuations associated with specific crises. The conclusions empirically confirm the validity of the law in Spain, highlighting the historical limits of capitalism and providing quantitative evidence on the structural dynamics of profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • López-Espejo, Iván, 2025. "La ley del descenso tendencial de la tasa de ganancia: Evidencia empírica para la economía española [The Law of the Tendency of the Rate of Profit to Fall: Empirical Evidence for the Spanish Economy]," MPRA Paper 127016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:127016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shaikh, Anwar, 2016. "Capitalism: Competition, Conflict, Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199390632.
    2. Costas Lapavitsas, 2013. "The financialization of capitalism: 'Profiting without producing'," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 792-805, December.
    3. Feng Zhao & Jianbao Zhang & Zhen Luo, 2024. "Market competition, labor value and price: a Marxist disequilibrium theoretical and empirical framework," China Political Economy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(1), pages 47-71, November.
    4. Sergio Cámara Izquierdo, 2003. "La rentabilidad del capital en España," Revista de Economia Critica, Universidad Pablo de Olavide y Asociacion de Economia Critica, vol. 1, pages 201-228.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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