IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/126294.html

Inflation Persistence and Involuntary Unemployment in Pakistan: A Keynesian Econometric Study

Author

Listed:
  • Boughabi, Houssam

Abstract

This paper develops a stochastic Keynesian model linking inflation, unemployment, and GDP. Inflation follows a fractional Brownian motion, capturing persistent shocks, while a temporal convolutional network forecasts conditional paths, allowing machine learning to account for nonlinear interactions and long-memory effects. Unemployment responds conditionally to inflation thresholds, permitting involuntary joblessness, while GDP depends on both variables, reflecting aggregate demand and labor market frictions. The model is applied to Pakistan, simulating macroeconomic dynamics under alternative policy scenarios. We demonstrate that sustained growth is possible even under persistent inflation, reinforcing the empirical relevance of Keynesian theory in contemporary macroeconomic analysis and highlighting the value of machine learning for policy evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Boughabi, Houssam, 2025. "Inflation Persistence and Involuntary Unemployment in Pakistan: A Keynesian Econometric Study," MPRA Paper 126294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:126294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/126294/1/MPRA_paper_126294.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blinder, Alan S, 1987. "Keynes, Lucas, and Scientific Progress," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 130-136, May.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    4. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    6. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Willem Thorbecke, 2002. "A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve: The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 255-268, Spring.
    2. Adama Zerbo, 2018. "Essai d'une nouvelle représentation macroéconomique du marché du travail," Documents de travail 178, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 8695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Saglio, Sophie & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Introducing price-setting behaviour in the Phillips Curve: the role of nonlinearities," MPRA Paper 46646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Is There a Desirable Rate of Inflation? A Theoretical and Empirical Survey," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 49-83, May.
    6. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 1999. "Does Money Illusion Matter? An Experimental Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 184, CESifo.
    7. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2016. "The New Classical Explanation of the Stagflation: A Psychological Way of Thinking," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16018, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Karl-Heinz Todter & Gerhard Ziebarth, 1999. "Price Stability versus Low Inflation in Germany: An Analysis of Costs and Benefits," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 47-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777, March.
    10. George A. Akerlof, 2007. "The Missing Motivation in Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 5-36, March.
    11. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Javier G�mez & Jos� Dar�o Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3603, Banco de la Republica.
    13. Kenny, Geoff & McGettigan, Donal, 1997. "Low Inflation or Price Stability? A Look at the Issues," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/97, Central Bank of Ireland.
    14. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    15. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Post-Print halshs-01179114, HAL.
    16. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Central banking and financial innovation. A survey of the modern literature," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(222), pages 263-297.
    17. Chantal Dupasquier & Nicholas Ricketts, 1998. "Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada," Staff Working Papers 98-14, Bank of Canada.
    18. Helena Chytilová & Zdeněk Chytil, 2014. "Ekonomické vzdělání a peněžní iluze, experimentální přístup [Economic Education and Money Illusion: An Experimental Approach]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(4), pages 500-520.
    19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?," NBER Working Papers 13566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:126294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.