Queens over Kings: Gender and Socioeconomic Predictors of Competitive Chess Performance among Peruvian Youth

The aim of this research is to determine whether socioeconomic factors can predict the chess performance of young Peruvian players, measured as the probability of winning a medal in a championship. To achieve this, we explore data from a survey conducted by the Peruvian Chess Sports Federation (FDPA) after the XXXI Pan American Youth Hybrid Festival 2021. A binary regression model is estimated assuming a logistic probability distribution. The results indicate that factors such as gender, previous performance, age, internet access quality, having siblings, and academic performance are significant in predicting a player's likelihood of winning a medal in a chess competition. The analysis suggests that the probability of a female player winning a medal is higher than that of a male player by at least 26 percentage points. Oaxaca-Blinder and Nopo decompositions confirm the significant impact of gender on chess performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first scientific research on the performance of young Peruvian chess players. Furthermore, its findings can be valuable for identifying players with a high probability of winning in championships and designing strategies to enhance the performance of chess players.