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Shifting the 'goal posts': What is the optimal allocation of Super Rugby competition points?


  • Niven Winchester

    () (Department of Economics, University of Otago)


Competition points are awarded in sports events to determine which participants qualify for the playoffs or to identify the champion. We use competition points to measure strength in a prediction model and choose competition points to maximise prediction accuracy. This allows us to determine the allocation of competition points that most appropriately rewards strong teams. Our analysis focuses on Super Rugby as the characteristics of this competition closely match our modelling assumptions. We find that the current allocation of competition points is not optimal and suggest an alternative. Our findings have implications for other competitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Niven Winchester, 2007. "Shifting the 'goal posts': What is the optimal allocation of Super Rugby competition points?," Working Papers 0715, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:0715

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Zuber, Richard A & Gandar, John M & Bowers, Benny D, 1985. "Beating the Spread: Testing the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 800-806, August.
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