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From Courtesy to Influence: Identifying the Role of China’s New Ambassador to Thailand through OSINT-Based Multilayered Networks and Inflection Point Early Warning

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  • MENG, WEI

Abstract

This study aims to examine how China's newly appointed ambassador to Thailand employs event networks and temporal dynamics to demonstrate issue entry and structural embedding in early diplomatic practices, thereby revealing the priorities and potential trends in China's diplomacy toward Thailand. Existing research predominantly focuses on macro-policy levels, lacking systematic quantitative analysis of event-level diplomatic activities. This study seeks to fill this gap. Methodologically, it employs an event-level observation-computational empirical design, constructing five-layer networks (administrative, legislative, multilateral, social, and media) and time series based on open-source intelligence (OSINT). The analytical process follows the HCLS paradigm: identifying structural hubs (Hub) via the Bridge Center Early Warning Index (BCEW), detecting rhythmic inflection points (Change) using CUSUM, BOCPD, and PELT methods, characterizing lead-response lag relationships (Lag) between issues through cross-correlation and Hawkes processes, and translating multidimensional evidence into issue priority scores (Score) using AHP→TOPSIS. (Score). Results indicate that the administrative and multilateral layers exhibit significant hub status within the network, while security and multilateral issues show statistically significant rhythmic inflection points within short-term windows. “Security→Administrative” and “Multilateral→UN-ESCAP” demonstrate strong coupling at zero lag, whereas legislative channel coupling is weaker and transient. Multi-criteria ranking indicates that security, digital cooperation, and multilateral rules form the priority issue sequence, remaining robust to weight perturbations. Integrating four evidence chains reveals that China's recent diplomatic focus toward Thailand centers on amplifying issue linkage through administrative and multilateral platforms, gradually shifting toward narrative coupling of rule-building and public diplomacy in the medium term. In conclusion, this study not only proposes a reproducible, falsifiable event-level diplomatic analysis methodology but also reveals the logical chain of “hub prioritization—issue triggering—platform amplification—narrative coupling—trend insight” in China-Thailand relations. This research offers a quantitative perspective for understanding the micro-operational mechanisms of Chinese diplomacy while providing empirical evidence for policy formulation and regional cooperation.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng, Wei, 2025. "From Courtesy to Influence: Identifying the Role of China’s New Ambassador to Thailand through OSINT-Based Multilayered Networks and Inflection Point Early Warning," SocArXiv ywv9r_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ywv9r_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ywv9r_v1
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    1. Abbott, Kenneth W. & Snidal, Duncan, 2000. "Hard and Soft Law in International Governance," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 421-456, July.
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