IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/57buw_v1.html

Systematic Evaluation of Nation-State Propaganda in LLM Outputs

Author

Listed:
  • Greene, Kevin T.
  • Shapiro, Jacob N

Abstract

The rapid growth and usability of AI is creating new risks to information quality, including the possibility that chatbot responses spread propaganda from state-backed influence campaigns. There is little systematic evidence regarding how frequently LLMs spread such narratives when responding to user queries. Previous attempts to assess these risks rely on small numbers of evaluation questions, use opaque query construction procedures, and fail to account for key sources of uncertainty in model responses. We address these gaps with an automated, reproducible pipeline that samples documented state-backed propaganda and news items, programmatically generates evaluation questions, and audits LLM-generated responses. We evaluate whether five prominent models: (1) reproduce arguments aligned with documented Kremlin propaganda narratives; (2) present the Kremlin perspective on events without providing corrective context; and (3) cite known propaganda outlets. We find substantially lower rates of propaganda-aligned responses and propaganda-source citation than prior small-sample work would suggest. These risks are particularly rare for questions resembling ordinary information searches about Ukraine. Our approach enables systematic comparisons across models and issue areas, supports ongoing monitoring, and could be extended to many other hotly-debated topics.

Suggested Citation

  • Greene, Kevin T. & Shapiro, Jacob N, 2026. "Systematic Evaluation of Nation-State Propaganda in LLM Outputs," SocArXiv 57buw_v1, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:57buw_v1
    DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/57buw_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/6a0b35cf683b7244a747972d/
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31235/osf.io/57buw_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald E. Robertson & Jon Green & Damian J. Ruck & Katherine Ognyanova & Christo Wilson & David Lazer, 2023. "Users choose to engage with more partisan news than they are exposed to on Google Search," Nature, Nature, vol. 618(7964), pages 342-348, June.
    2. Kevin Wu & Eric Wu & Kevin Wei & Angela Zhang & Allison Casasola & Teresa Nguyen & Sith Riantawan & Patricia Shi & Daniel Ho & James Zou, 2025. "An automated framework for assessing how well LLMs cite relevant medical references," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & David Deming, 2023. "The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI," On the Economy 98843, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Valentin Hofmann & Pratyusha Ria Kalluri & Dan Jurafsky & Sharese King, 2024. "AI generates covertly racist decisions about people based on their dialect," Nature, Nature, vol. 633(8028), pages 147-154, September.
    5. Maxime Griot & Coralie Hemptinne & Jean Vanderdonckt & Demet Yuksel, 2025. "Large Language Models lack essential metacognition for reliable medical reasoning," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Kevin T. Greene & Mayana Pereira & Nilima Pisharody & Rahul Dodhia & Juan Lavista Ferres & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2025. "Using website referrals to identify unreliable content rabbit holes," Behaviour and Information Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 1340-1349, April.
    7. Yifan Yang & Qiao Jin & Furong Huang & Zhiyong Lu, 2025. "Adversarial prompt and fine-tuning attacks threaten medical large language models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sugat Chaturvedi & Rochana Chaturvedi, 2025. "Who Gets the Callback? Generative AI and Gender Bias," Papers 2504.21400, arXiv.org.
    2. Zara Contractor & Germ'an Reyes, 2025. "Generative AI in Higher Education: Evidence from an Elite College," Papers 2508.00717, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    3. Anastasia Burkovskaya & Egor Starkov, 2026. "Causal Persuasion," Papers 2604.20664, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2026.
    4. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2025. "AI news shocks and the macroeconomy: evidence from UK patent data," IFS Working Papers W25/48, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Beknazar-Yuzbashev, George & Jiménez Durán, Rafael & McCrosky, Jesse & Stalinski, Mateusz, 2025. "Toxic content and user engagement on social media: Evidence from a field experiment," Working Papers 359, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    6. Franziska Sofia Hafner & Lena Hafner & Roberto Corizzo, 2025. "‘Slightly disappointing’ vs. ‘worst sh** ever’: tackling cultural differences in negative sentiment expressions in AI-based sentiment analysis," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 1-31, August.
    7. Andrew Johnston & Christos A. Makridis, 2026. "AI, Output, and Employment," CESifo Working Paper Series 12579, CESifo.
    8. Kiran Tomlinson & Sonia Jaffe & Will Wang & Scott Counts & Siddharth Suri, 2025. "Working with AI: Measuring the Applicability of Generative AI to Occupations," Papers 2507.07935, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    9. Feiyang Xu & Poonacha K. Medappa & Murat M. Tunc & Martijn Vroegindeweij & Jan C. Fransoo, 2025. "AI-Assisted Programming Decreases the Productivity of Experienced Developers by Increasing the Technical Debt and Maintenance Burden," Papers 2510.10165, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    10. Ingrid Campo-Ruiz, 2025. "Artificial intelligence may affect diversity: architecture and cultural context reflected through ChatGPT, Midjourney, and Google Maps," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Jacob Dominski & Yong Suk Lee, 2025. "Advancing AI Capabilities and Evolving Labor Outcomes," Papers 2507.08244, arXiv.org.
    12. Qiaoni Shi & Kai Zhu & Kai Gu, 2026. "Answering Without Referring: How AI Search Rewrites the Web's Economic Bargain," Papers 2607.07652, arXiv.org.
    13. Aaron Chatterji & Daniel Rock & Eduard Talamas, 2025. "Transformative AI and Firms," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, pages 173-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Burhan Ogut & Michelle Yin, 2026. "Partial Identification with Multiple Nonlinear Measurements of a Latent Regressor," Papers 2607.12219, arXiv.org.
    15. Zara Contractor & Germán Reyes, 2025. "Generative AI in Higher Education: Evidence from an Elite College," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0359, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    16. Piyush Gulati & Arianna Marchetti & Victoria Sevcenko & Phanish Puranam, 2025. "How Generative AI Adoption Alters the Demand for Cognitive and Social Skills Within Roles: A Skill-Centric Analysis," Papers 2503.09212, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2026.
    17. Hankui Wang & Jiachen Yi & Philipp Harting, 2026. "The Heterogeneous Diffusion of AI: Individuals, Organisations, and Adoption Barriers," GREDEG Working Papers 2026-16, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    18. Henry A. Thompson, 2026. "AI and the Law," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 79(1), pages 70-82, February.
    19. Beknazar-Yuzbashev, George & Jiménez-Durán, Rafael & McCrosky, Jesse & Stalinski, Mateusz, 2025. "Toxic Content and User Engagement on Social Media : Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1543, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    20. Fabian Kosse & Tim Leffler & Arna Woemmel, 2025. "Digital Skills: Social Disparities and the Impact of Early Mentoring," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1222, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:57buw_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://socarxiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.