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Three aspects of an empirical effect: statistical, theoretical, and practical aspect

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  • Zenker, Frank

    (Lund University)

  • Witte, Erich H.

Abstract

A transparent evaluation of an empirical effect’s relevance is based on the size of effect (statistical aspect), a theoretical construct’s ability to adequately predict the effect (theoretical aspect), and the effect’s practical utility (practical aspect). In behavioral science publications, however, all three aspects are often found conflated. Already if only the practical aspect is evaluated independently of the other two aspects, disagreements about the effect’s relevance turn out to be resolvable. And, if also the statistical aspect is evaluated independently of the theoretical aspect, then the ‘smallest effect of interest’ turns out to be much larger when predicting an effect (statistical aspect) as opposed to explaining it (theoretical aspect). Crucially, behavioral science publications today typically report either small, homogenous empirical effects or large, heterogeneous ones. This pattern greatly impairs the prospects for theory construction in behavioral science, because an empirically adequate theoretical construct would have to predict a larger and more homogenous empirical effect than can be observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Zenker, Frank & Witte, Erich H., 2021. "Three aspects of an empirical effect: statistical, theoretical, and practical aspect," OSF Preprints zng8k, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zng8k
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/zng8k
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
    2. R Fildes & K Nikolopoulos & S F Crone & A A Syntetos, 2008. "Forecasting and operational research: a review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(9), pages 1150-1172, September.
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