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The career effects of labour market conditions at entry

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Andrews
  • Nathan Deutscher
  • Jonathan Hambur
  • David Hansell

Abstract

This paper explores the effects of labour market conditions at graduation on an individual’s work-life over the following decade. Australians graduating into a state and year with a 5 percentage point higher youth unemployment rate can expect to earn roughly 8 per cent less in their first year of work and 3½ per cent less after five years, with the effect gradually fading to around zero ten years on. The magnitude of this effect varies according to the characteristics of the individual and the tertiary institution they attend. We then explore the mechanisms behind this scarring. Scarring partly reflects the subsequent evolution of the unemployment rate — the fact that unemployment shocks tend to persist — highlighting the potential for timely and effective macroeconomic stabilisation policies to ameliorate these scarring effects. More generally, job switching to more productive firms emerges as a key channel through which workers recover from adverse shocks that initially disrupt (worker-firm) match quality. We find some evidence that the speed of recovery has slowed since 2000, which is consistent with the decline in labour market dynamism observed in Australia over that period.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Andrews & Nathan Deutscher & Jonathan Hambur & David Hansell, 2020. "The career effects of labour market conditions at entry," OECD Productivity Working Papers 20, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaac:20-en
    DOI: 10.1787/29c11c75-en
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Henri Bussink & Tobias Vervliet & Bas Weel, 2022. "The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 170(2), pages 279-303, May.
    2. Denise Jackson & Julia Richardson & Grant Michelson & Rahat Munir, 2023. "The Future of Accounting Talent: Career Values, Choices and Satisfaction Among Early Career Accountants," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 33(4), pages 391-406, December.
    3. Henri Bussink & Tobias Vervliet & Bas ter Weel, 2022. "The short-term effect of the COVID-19 crisis on employment probabilities of labour-market entrants in the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-030/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Jeff Borland & Michael Coelli, 2021. "Is It ‘Dog Days’ for the Young in the Australian Labour Market?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(4), pages 421-444, December.
    5. Cochrane, William & Poot, Jacques & Roskruge, Matthew, 2022. "Urban Resilience and Social Security Uptake: New Zealand Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 15510, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Samuel Bentolila & Florentino Felgueroso & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2022. "Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-49, May.
    7. Jeff Borland, 2021. "Is it ‘dog days’ for the young in the Australian labour market?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2021n05, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    8. Beata Skubiak, 2021. "Revitalization Education in Problem Areas as a Tool for the Implementation of Social Welfare," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-19, October.
    9. Bussink, Henri & Vervliet, Tobias & ter Weel, Bas, 2022. "The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands," IZA Discussion Papers 15242, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Leonora Risse & Angela Jackson, 2021. "A gender lens on the workforce impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 24(2), pages 111-144.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    job mobility; job search; Wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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