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The 2008-09 Crisis in Turkey: Performance, Policy Responses and Challenges for Sustaining the Recovery

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  • Łukasz Rawdanowicz

    (OECD)

Abstract

Turkey is recovering from its most severe recession in several decades. The massive contraction in GDP is largely explained by the unprecedented collapse in foreign demand, which was aggravated in Turkey by negative confidence effects and structural problems with competitiveness prior to the crisis. In contrast to previous recessions, Turkey could afford counter–cyclical polices and the financial markets proved resilient. During the crisis, the authorities cut interest rates significantly and promptly and implemented fiscal stimulus. This truly novel experience was possible thanks to a better macroeconomic position, a sounder monetary and fiscal policy framework, and better financial market regulations. The immediate policy challenge is to gradually remove policy stimulus and address medium–term stability considerations in a way that does not jeopardise the recovery. This paper relates to the 2010 OECD Economic Review of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey). La crise 2008-09 dans la Turquie : La performance, les réponses politiques et défis pour le maintien de récupération La Turquie se remet de sa récession la plus grave depuis plusieurs décennies. La contraction massive du PIB s'explique en grande partie par l'effondrement sans précédent de la demande étrangère, qui a été aggravée par des effets de confiance négatives et des problèmes structurels de compétitivité avant la crise. Contrairement aux récessions précédentes, la Turquie a pu se permettre des politiques contra-cycliques et des marchés financiers ont bien résisté. Pendant la crise, les autorités ont pu rapidement et sensiblement réduit les taux d'intérêt et mis en oeuvre des mesures de relance budgétaire. Cette expérience a été vraiment nouvelle et elle a été possible grâce à une meilleure position macroéconomique, un cadre monétaire et budgétaire plus sain, et une meilleure réglementation des marchés financiers. Le défi immédiat de politique économique est de supprimer progressivement la politique de relance et de prendre en compte les considérations de stabilité à moyen terme de manière à ne pas compromettre la reprise. Ce document se rapporte à l’Étude économique de Turquie de l’OCDE, 2010, (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/turquie).

Suggested Citation

  • Łukasz Rawdanowicz, 2010. "The 2008-09 Crisis in Turkey: Performance, Policy Responses and Challenges for Sustaining the Recovery," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 819, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:819-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5km36j7d320s-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Spulbăr Cristi & Niţoi Mihai, 2013. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Romania Over the Period 2001 to 2012: A Bvar Analysis," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 60(2), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Hasan Comert & Selman Colak, 2014. "The Impacts of the Global Crisis on the Turkish Economy and Policy Responses," ERC Working Papers 1417, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    assainissement budgétaire; counter-cyclical; finances publiques; fiscal consolidation; outlook; perspectives; politique contre cyclique; public finances; recession; récession; Turkey; Turquie;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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