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The Economic Consequences of Terrorism

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Lenain
  • Marcos Bonturi
  • Vincent Koen

Abstract

The unprecedented 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States caused massive casualties and damage, and ushered in an era of greater uncertainty. While a prompt and vigorous policy response helped limit the immediate economic impact of the aggression, the heightened terrorist threat has some long-lasting, if diffuse, macroeconomic repercussions. Three channels of influence are explored in this paper: shrinking insurance coverage stemming from the perception of greater risk, higher trade costs possibly affecting international trade, and stepped-up security spending partially rolling back the “peace dividend” of the 1990s. It is argued that, in the absence of new large-scale terrorist attacks, and provided terrorism risk is dealt with efficiently, the net long-run macroeconomic impact is probably tangible but limited ... Les conséquences économiques du terrorisme Les attentats sans précédent du 11 septembre 2001 aux États-Unis ont causé des pertes humaines et des dégâts matériels énormes, et ont inauguré une ère de plus grande incertitude. Si une réponse rapide et vigoureuse des responsables a aidé à limiter l’impact économique immédiat de l’agression, le renforcement de la menace terroriste a des répercussions macroéconomiques durables, quoique diffuses. Trois canaux d’influence sont examinés dans la présente étude : une couverture d'assurance réduite résultant de la perception de risque plus important, des coûts de transaction plus élevés pouvant affecter le commerce international, et une augmentation des dépenses de sécurité renversant partiellement le « dividende de la paix » des années 90. Il en ressort qu’en l’absence de nouvelles attaques de grande ampleur, et à condition que le risque terroriste soit géré efficacement, l’impact macroéconomique net à long terme est probablement tangible mais limité ...

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Lenain & Marcos Bonturi & Vincent Koen, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of Terrorism," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 334, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:334-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/511778841283
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jahangir Sultan, 2012. "Options on federal funds futures and interest rate volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 330-359, April.
    2. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Turvey, Calum G. & Onyango, Benjamin M. & Hallman, William K. & Condry, Sarah C., 2007. "Consumers' Perception of Food-System Vulnerability to an Agroterrorist Attack," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 38(3), November.
    4. Abdurrahim EMHAN, 2011. "The Effects of Terror and Violence on Entrepreneurs in the Eastern and South-eastern Regions of Turkey: A Field Research," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 16(16).
    5. John Garvey & Martin Mullins, 2009. "An Examination of "New" and "Old" Terrorism Using High-Frequency Data," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 18, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Tilman Bruck, 2005. "An Economic Analysis Of Security Policies," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 375-389.
    7. Bruck, Tilman & Wickstrom, Bengt-Arne, 2004. "The economic consequences of terror: guest editors' introduction," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 293-300, June.
    8. Procasky, William J. & Ujah, Nacasius U., 2016. "Terrorism and its impact on the cost of debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-266.
    9. Michael Hüther & Joachim Ahrens & Wilhelm Ruprecht & Michael Wolgast & Willi Leibfritz, 2003. "Weltwirtschaftliche Folgen des Terrorismus - mittel- und langfristige Perspektiven," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 3-20, January.
    10. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin & Robert Witt, 2011. "Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2157-2181, August.
    11. Arif, Imtiaz & Suleman, Tahir, 2014. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 58918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
    13. Chesney, Marc & Reshetar, Ganna & Karaman, Mustafa, 2011. "The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 253-267, February.
    14. repec:wsi:qjfxxx:v:03:y:2013:i:02:n:s2010139213500079 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ahmad, Tanveer & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Rehman, Mobeen ur, 2014. "Industry Premiums and Systematic Risk under Terror: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 60082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Zhou, Li & Turvey, Calum & Hu, Wuyang & Ying, Ruiyao, 2015. "Fear and Trust: How Risk Perceptions of Avian Influenza Affect the Demand for Chicken," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 202077, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    17. Chaudhry, Naukhaiz & Roubaud, David & Akhter, Waheed & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Impact of terrorism on stock markets: empirical evidence from the SAARC region," MPRA Paper 84783, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Feb 2018.
    18. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Beverly Porter, 2003. "Assessing, Managing, and Financing Extreme Events: Dealing with Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 10179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Tilman Brück & Bengt-Arne Wickström, 2004. "The Economic Consequences of Terror: A Brief Survey," HiCN Working Papers 03, Households in Conflict Network.
    20. Li, Sali & Tallman, Stephen B. & Ferreira, Manuel P., 2005. "Developing the eclectic paradigm as a model of global strategy: An application to the impact of the Sep. 11 terrorist attacks on MNE performance levels," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 479-496, December.
    21. Serhan Cevik & John Ricco, 2015. "Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism," IMF Working Papers 15/225, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Konstantinos Drakos & Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou, 2011. "Terrorism Shocks and Public Spending: Panel VAR Evidence from Europe," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 48, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    assurance; defence; défense; fiscal policy; incertitude; insurance; monetary policy; politique budgétaire; politique monétaire; security; sécurité; terrorism; terrorisme; transport; transport; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

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