IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/8106.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth A. Froot
  • Steven E. Posner

Abstract

Financial instruments whose payoffs are linked to exogenous events, such as the occurrence of a natural catastrophe or an unusual weather pattern depend crucially on actuarial models for determining event (e.g., default) probabilities. In many instances, investors appear to receive premiums far in excess of these modeled actuarial probabilities, even for event risks that are uncorrelated with returns on other financial assets. Some have attributed these larger spreads to uncertainty in the probabilities generated by the models. We provide a simple model of such 'parameter uncertainty' and demonstrate how it affects rational investors' demand for event risk exposures. We show that while parameter uncertainty does indeed affect bond spreads, it does not tend to increase spreads by much. Indeed, the spread increases due to parameter uncertainty in our numerical examples are on the order of only 1-2 basis points. Moreover, in many instances, including those that have the most sensible correlation settings, parameter uncertainty tends to decrease the size of bond spreads. We therefore argue that parameter uncertainty does not appear to be a satisfactory explanation for high event-risk returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth A. Froot & Steven E. Posner, 2001. "The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 8106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8106
    Note: AP CF
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8106.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:apmaco:v:309:y:2017:i:c:p:68-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Turvey, Calum G. & Weersink, Alfons, 2005. "Pricing Weather Insurance with a Random Strike Price: An Application to the Ontario Ice Wine Harvest," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19255, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.