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The Effects of Tax-Law Changes on Property-Casualty Insurance Prices

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  • David F. Bradford
  • Kyle Logue

Abstract

During the 1980s, the federal income tax treatment of property-casualty insurers and their policyholders underwent several important changes, the most significant of which came in 1986. This paper develops theoretical predictions for how these changes should have affected the equilibrium prices of property-casualty insurance policies, and explores the extent to which the theoretical predictions are reflected in data on industry experience. The paper is devoted mainly to a careful specification of the income tax rules, and to deriving the connection between predictions about simple forms of insurance policy and industry data on premiums earned. Although the predicted impact of the changes in the tax rules enacted in 1986 translates into a tax on premiums (net of the cost of acquisition) of up to 13 percent (on medical malpractice, the longest-tail line of insurance, in 1987), it is small relative to the variability of the actual loss experience.

Suggested Citation

  • David F. Bradford & Kyle Logue, 1996. "The Effects of Tax-Law Changes on Property-Casualty Insurance Prices," NBER Working Papers 5652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5652
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kraus, Alan & Ross, Stephen A, 1982. "The Determination of Fair Profits for the Property-Liability Insurance Firm," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1015-1028, September.
    2. David F. Bradford, 1981. "Issues in the Design of Saving and Investment Incentives," NBER Working Papers 0637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cummins, J. David & Grace, Elizabeth, 1994. "Tax management and investment strategies of property-liability insurers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 43-72, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. R.A. Somerville, 2004. "Insurance, Consumption, and Saving: A Dynamic Analysis in Continuous Time," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1130-1140, September.
    2. David F. Bradford, 1996. "Fixing Capital Gains: Symmetry, Consistency and Correctness in the Taxation of Financial Instruments," NBER Working Papers 5754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ke, Bin & Petroni, Kathy R. & Shackelford, Douglas A., 2000. "The impact of state taxes on self-insurance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-122, August.
    4. Thomasson, Melissa A., 2002. "From Sickness to Health: The Twentieth-Century Development of U.S. Health Insurance," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 233-253, July.
    5. Rashmi Banga, 2005. "Role of Services in the Growth Process: A Survey," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 159, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.

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