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Consumer Durables and Inertial Behavior: Estimation and Aggregation of (S,s) Rules

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  • Orazio P. Attanasio

Abstract

This paper presents an (S,s) model for automobile consumption and estimates it using a data set of US households. The model allows for unobserved heterogeneity in both the target level and the band width, takes into account the possibility of a zero desired level, constrains the band to be non negative and allows asymmetric bands. The model is estimated on a novel data set which contains information on both stock values and automobile expenditure for a large number of households observed over a period of a year. The (S,s) rule is specified in terms of the ratio of car stock to non durables. The shortcuts usually employed in the empirical literature on (S,s) rules can be avoided thanks to the richness of the data set and the rigorous specification of the stochastic model. Having estimated the model and considered `goodness of fit' measures, aggregation issues are considered. First, the paper presents a number of negative results. Then, several simulations aimed at evaluating the effects induced by inertial behavior on aggregate dynamics are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Orazio P. Attanasio, 1995. "Consumer Durables and Inertial Behavior: Estimation and Aggregation of (S,s) Rules," NBER Working Papers 5282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5282
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    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1993. "Microeconomic Adjustment Hazards and Aggregate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 359-383.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
    3. Grossman, Sanford J & Laroque, Guy, 1990. "Asset Pricing and Optimal Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Illiquid Durable Consumption Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 25-51, January.
    4. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1993. "Durable Goods: An Explanation for Their Slow Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 351-384, April.
    5. Avner Bar-Ilan & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Consumer Durables and the Optimality of Usually Doing Nothing," NBER Working Papers 2488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 1993. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 631-649.
    7. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1995. "Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 891-951, July.
    8. Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks: Evidence from Automobile Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 403-436, June.
    9. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A, 1991. "Dynamic (S, s) Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1659-1686, November.
    10. J. Joseph Beaulieu, 1993. "Utilizing cross-sectional evidence in modeling aggregate time series: consumer durables with fixed costs of adjustment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Caplin, Andrew S, 1985. "The Variability of Aggregate Demand with (S, s) Inventory Policies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1395-1409, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jerome Adda & Russell Cooper, 2000. "Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 778-806, August.
    2. Raj Chetty, 2004. "Consumption Commitments, Unemployment Durations, and Local Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 10211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Raj Chetty & Adam Szeidl, 2016. "Consumption Commitments and Habit Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 855-890, March.
    4. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 1999. "Durable Goods Cycles," NBER Working Papers 6987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 947-958, September.
    6. Raj Chetty & Adam Szeidl, 2007. "Consumption Commitments and Risk Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(2), pages 831-877.
    7. Erik Hurst & Christopher Foote & John Leahy, 2000. "Testing the (S, s) Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 116-119, May.
    8. Maura P. Doyle, 1997. "The effects of interest rates and taxes on new car prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1998. "Consumption Demand," NBER Working Papers 6466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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