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Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050

Author

Listed:
  • George A. Alessandria
  • Shafaat Y. Khan
  • Armen Khederlarian
  • Kim J. Ruhl
  • Joseph B. Steinberg

Abstract

We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly, but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply that the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump. We also show that the trade response to the trade war is similar to the response to the 1980 liberalization that initially granted China access to U.S. markets at NTR terms and was expected to be quickly reversed.

Suggested Citation

  • George A. Alessandria & Shafaat Y. Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2024. "Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050," NBER Working Papers 32150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32150
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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