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Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050

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Listed:
  • George A. Alessandria
  • Shafaat Y. Khan
  • Armen Khederlarian
  • Kim J. Ruhl
  • Joseph B. Steinberg

Abstract

We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump.

Suggested Citation

  • George A. Alessandria & Shafaat Y. Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2024. "Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050," NBER Working Papers 32150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32150
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Kim J. Ruhl & Jonathan L. Willis, 2017. "New Exporter Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58, pages 703-726, August.
    3. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    4. Kim J. Ruhl & Jonathan L. Willis, 2017. "New Exporter Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 703-726, August.
    5. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2022. "Trade Policy Uncertainty," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 363-395, August.
    6. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag & Ruhl, Kim J., 2021. "Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
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    10. Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2021. "How does trade respond to anticipated tariff changes? Evidence from NAFTA," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2024. "Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Carter Mix, 2023. "The Dynamic Effects Of Multilateral Trade Policy With Export Churning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 653-689, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Poilly, Céline & Tripier, Fabien, 2025. "Regional trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Chang, Shuangshuang & Qin, Meng & Hsueh, Hsin-Pei & Lobont, Oana-Ramona, 2025. "Could U.S.-China conflicts intensify climate transition risks?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1592-1604.
    3. Che, Yi & Lin, Donglin & Zhang, Yan, 2025. "Pains or gains: Trade war, trade deficit, and tariff evasion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2024. "Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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