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Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050

Author

Listed:
  • George A. Alessandria
  • Shafaat Y. Khan
  • Armen Khederlarian
  • Kim J. Ruhl
  • Joseph B. Steinberg

Abstract

We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump.

Suggested Citation

  • George A. Alessandria & Shafaat Y. Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2024. "Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050," NBER Working Papers 32150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32150
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    Cited by:

    1. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Ignatenko, Anna & Lashkaripour, Ahmad & Macedoni, Luca & Simonovska, Ina, 2025. "Making America great again? The economic impacts of Liberation Day tariffs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Chang, Shuangshuang & Qin, Meng & Hsueh, Hsin-Pei & Lobont, Oana-Ramona, 2025. "Could U.S.-China conflicts intensify climate transition risks?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1592-1604.
    4. Poilly, Céline & Tripier, Fabien, 2025. "Regional trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    5. Hongyan Zhao, 2025. "Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of the 2025 US tariffs," BIS Working Papers 1316, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Che, Yi & Lin, Donglin & Zhang, Yan, 2025. "Pains or gains: Trade war, trade deficit, and tariff evasion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2024. "Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Poilly, Céline & Tripier, Fabien, 2025. "Reprint of: Regional trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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