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Local Shocks and Internal Migration: The Disparate Effects of Robots and Chinese Imports in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Marius Faber
  • Andrés P. Sarto
  • Marco Tabellini

Abstract

Migration is a key mechanism through which local labor markets adjust to economic shocks. In this paper, we analyze the migration response of American workers to two of the most important shocks that hit US manufacturing since the 1990s: Chinese import competition and the introduction of industrial robots. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure across US local labor markets over time, we establish a new fact. Even though both shocks drastically reduced employment in the manufacturing sector, only robots led to a sizable decline in population size. We provide evidence that negative employment spillovers outside manufacturing, caused by robots but not by Chinese imports, can explain the different migration responses. We interpret our findings through the lens of a model that highlights two mechanisms: the cost savings that each shock provides and the degree of complementarity between directly and indirectly exposed industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Faber & Andrés P. Sarto & Marco Tabellini, 2022. "Local Shocks and Internal Migration: The Disparate Effects of Robots and Chinese Imports in the US," NBER Working Papers 30048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30048
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    Cited by:

    1. Weller, Jürgen, 2022. "Tendencias mundiales, pandemia de COVID-19 y desafíos de la inclusión laboral en América Latina y el Caribe," Documentos de Proyectos 48610, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Furtado, Delia & Kong, Haiyang, 2024. "How do low-education immigrants adjust to Chinese import shocks? Evidence using English language proficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    3. Karim Bekhtiar, 2023. "The decline of manufacturing employment and the rise of the far-right in Austria," Economics working papers 2023-09, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Rodríguez-Puello, Gabriel & Rickardsson, Jonna, 2024. "Spatial Diffusion of Economic Shocks in the Labor Market: Evidence from a Mining Boom and Bust," OSF Preprints tzmf2, Center for Open Science.
    5. Peng, Guohua & Zhao, Xiaoling, 2025. "Effects of export growth on the location choices of migrant workers: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Sofía Fernández Guerrico, 2023. "Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/357236, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Maria Petrova & Gregor Schubert & Bledi Taska & Pinar Yildirim, 2025. "Robotization and the Political Response of Politicians," NBER Chapters, in: The Political Economy of Artificial Intelligence, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bekhtiar, Karim, 2025. "The decline of manufacturing employment and the rise of the far-right in Austria," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    9. Bekhtiar, Karim, 2024. "Robotization, Internal Migration and Rural Decline," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302396, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Karim Bekhtiar, 2022. "Robotization, Internal Migration and Rural Depopulation in Austria," Economics working papers 2022-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    11. Xiaoyu Bian & Guangsu Zhou, 2024. "The effects of robots on internal migration: Evidence from China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 840-865, June.
    12. Zhu, Ruini & Yuan, Ye & Wang, Yaojing, 2024. "Love, health, and robots: Automation, migration, and family responses in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Jaison R. Abel & Richard Deitz, 2024. "The Long-Term Rise and Geographic Concentration of Labor Market Detachment," Staff Reports 1138, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Patrick Bennett & Julian Vedeler Johnsen, 2025. "Intersecting Shocks: The Combined Labor Market Impacts of Automation and Immigration," CESifo Working Paper Series 12217, CESifo.
    15. repec:osf:osfxxx:tzmf2_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Karim Bekhtiar, 2025. "Robotization, internal migration and rural decline," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 1-31, September.
    17. Masahiro ENDOH & Toshiyuki MATSUURA & Akira SASAHARA, 2025. "The Effect of Import Shocks on Internal Migration in Japan," Discussion papers 25108, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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