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Bubbles and the Value of Innovation

Author

Listed:
  • Valentin Haddad
  • Paul Ho
  • Erik Loualiche

Abstract

Booming innovation often coincides with intense speculation in financial markets. Using over a million patents, we document two ways the market valuation of innovation and its economic impact become disconnected during bubbles. Specifically, an innovation raises the stock price of its creator by 40% more than is justified by future outcomes. In contrast, competitors’ stock prices move little despite their profits suffering. We develop a theory of investor disagreement about which firms will succeed that reconciles both the facts, unlike existing models of bubbles. Optimal innovation policy during bubbles must account for the disconnect.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Haddad & Paul Ho & Erik Loualiche, 2022. "Bubbles and the Value of Innovation," NBER Working Papers 29917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29917
    Note: AP CF EFG PR
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    Cited by:

    1. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Qin, Meng & Mirza, Nawazish & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Exploring Bubbles in the Digital Economy: The Case of China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Ding, Zhiguo & Qi, Ji & Tang, Yun & Zhao, Xuankai, 2025. "Unveiling low productivity premium: A tale from emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Beibei Zhao, 2025. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Examining the Transformative Influence of Digital Finance on Green Technological Innovation: Empirical Insights from China," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 2068-2081, March.
    5. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 13 Aug 2024.
    6. Eduardo Dávila & Ansgar Walther, 2023. "Prudential Policy with Distorted Beliefs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(7), pages 1967-2006, July.
    7. Valentin Haddad & Paul Huebner & Erik Loualiche, 2025. "How Competitive Is the Stock Market? Theory, Evidence from Portfolios, and Implications for the Rise of Passive Investing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(3), pages 975-1018, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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