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A Note on Revenue Forecasting During the Dukakis Administration

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  • Daniel R. Feenberg
  • Harvey S. Rosen

Abstract

Critics of Governor Michael Dukakis have suggested that this year?s $400 million overestimate of tax revenues in Massachusetts casts doubt on his putative managerial skills. In this paper, we carefully examine the entire Dukakis forecasting record. We find that the 1988 experience was "unusual? in the sense that on average, revenue forecasts produced by his administration have been too low rather than too high. In addition, we find that there is no significant difference between the quality of the Dukakis forecasts and those of his predecessors in Massachusetts. Hence, those who seek to discover anything extraordinarily positive or negative about Dukakis? managerial capabilities should shift their attention to skills other than revenue forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel R. Feenberg & Harvey S. Rosen, 1988. "A Note on Revenue Forecasting During the Dukakis Administration," NBER Working Papers 2667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2667
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    1. Feenberg, Daniel R, et al, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 300-308, May.
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