IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/23948.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Were Nineteenth-Century Industrial Workers Permanent Income Savers?

Author

Listed:
  • Howard Bodenhorn

Abstract

Theories of household saving posit that households add to or draw down wealth to equalize the discounted presented value of consumption over time. This paper examines the extent to which nineteenth-century urban American industrial workers used saving and dissaving to smooth consumption in response to unanticipated, plausibly exogenous, shocks to income. Information on the expected and unexpected number of days unemployed is used to construct estimates of transitory income. The data are then used to estimate the marginal propensity to save from transitory income, and the results are broadly consistent with Friedman’s (1957) permanent income hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Howard Bodenhorn, 2017. "Were Nineteenth-Century Industrial Workers Permanent Income Savers?," NBER Working Papers 23948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23948
    Note: DAE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23948.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    2. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    3. Orazio Attanasio & Laura Blow & Robert Hamilton & Andrew Leicester, 2005. "Consumption, house prices and expectations," Bank of England working papers 271, Bank of England.
    4. Atack, Jeremy & Bateman, Fred & Margo, Robert A., 2002. "Part-Year Operation In Nineteenth-Century American Manufacturing: Evidence From The 1870 And 1880 Censuses," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 792-809, September.
    5. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
    6. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    7. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
    8. Dorothy S. Brady & Rose D. Friedman, 1947. "Savings and the Income Distribution," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume 10, pages 247-265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Consumption: A Cross-Sectional Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(1), pages 183-206.
    10. Orazio P. Attanasio & Laura Blow & Robert Hamilton & Andrew Leicester, 2009. "Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 20-50, February.
    11. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, July.
    12. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March.
    13. Luigi Pistaferri, 2001. "Superior Information, Income Shocks, And The Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 465-476, August.
    14. Stanley L. Engerman & Robert E. Gallman, 1986. "Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number enge86-1, July.
    15. Susan Averett & Howard Bodenhorn & Justas Staisiunas, 2005. "Unemployment Risk and Compensating Differentials in New Jersey Manufacturing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(4), pages 734-749, October.
    16. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    17. Joseph P. Dejuan & John J. Seater, 2006. "A Simple Test of Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(289), pages 27-46, February.
    18. Deaton, Angus, 1992. " Household Saving in LDCs: Credit Markets, Insurance and Welfare," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 253-273.
    19. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Alter, George & Goldin, Claudia & Rotella, Elyce, 1994. "The Savings of Ordinary Americans: The Philadelphia Saving Fund Society in the Mid-Nineteenth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(4), pages 735-767, December.
    21. Paul W. Rhode, 2002. "Gallman's Annual Output Series for the United States, 1834-1909," NBER Working Papers 8860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Brahima Coulibaly & Geng Li, 2006. "Do Homeowners Increase Consumption after the Last Mortgage Payment? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 10-19, February.
    23. Price V. Fishback, 1998. "Operations of "Unfettered" Labor Markets: Exit and Voice in American Labor Markets at the Turn of the Century," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 722-765, June.
    24. Keeler, James P & James, William L & Abdel-Ghany, Mohamed, 1985. "The Relative Size of Windfall Income and the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 209-215, June.
    25. Stanley L. Engerman & Robert E. Gallman, 1986. "Introduction to "Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth"," NBER Chapters, in: Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Angus Deaton, 2005. "Franco Modigliani and the life-cycle theory of consumption," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 91-107.
    27. Waldenström, Daniel, 2016. "Wealth-Income Ratios in a Small, Developing Economy: Sweden, 1810–2014," Working Paper Series 1134, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    28. Miron, Jeffrey A. & Romer, Christina D., 1990. "A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884–1940," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 321-337, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2011. "Earnings, Consumption and Life Cycle Choices," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 773-854, Elsevier.
    2. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
    3. Milkman, Katherine L. & Beshears, John, 2009. "Mental accounting and small windfalls: Evidence from an online grocer," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 384-394, August.
    4. Qazi-Muhammad Adnan Hye & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2018. "Does Financial and Trade Liberalization Drive Private Savings in Pakistan?," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(4), pages 198-212, December.
    5. Rodepeter, Ralf & Winter, Joachim, 1999. "Rules of thumb in life-cycle savings models," Papers 99-81, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    6. Brückner, Markus & Gradstein, Mark, 2013. "Effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on consumption in poor countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 343-357.
    7. Somville, Vincent & Vandewalle, Lore, 2023. "Access to banking, savings and consumption smoothing in rural India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    8. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1998. "Consumption Demand," NBER Working Papers 6466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Daria Pignalosa, 2021. "The Euler Equation Approach: Critical Implications of Recent Developments in the Theory of Intertemporal Choice," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 15(1), pages 1-43, June.
    10. Luc Christiaensen & Lei Pan, 2010. "Transfers and Development: Easy Come, Easy Go?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-125, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Bram De Rock & Bart Capéau, 2015. "The implications of household size and children for life-cycle saving," Working Paper Research 286, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Besley, Tim & Surico, Paolo & Meads, Neil, 2008. "Household External Finance and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 6934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumption Theory," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 23, April.
    15. Evren Ceritoglu, 2017. "The effect of house price changes on cohort consumption in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(3), pages 1-99–110.
    16. Michael Walden, 2012. "Will Households Change Their Saving Behaviour After the “Great Recession”? The Role of Human Capital," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 237-254, June.
    17. Berg, Erlend, 2013. "Are poor people credit-constrained or myopic? Evidence from a South African panel," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 195-205.
    18. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Neumayer, Andreas & Streb, Jochen, 2022. "Heterogeneous savers and their inflation expectation during German industrialization: Social class, wealth, and gender," Working Papers 33, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    19. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka & Matthew N. White, 2020. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 40-76, July.
    20. Rajat Deb, 2016. "Determinants of Savings in Sukanya Samriddhi Account: Evidence from Tripura," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(2), pages 120-140, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23948. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.